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Beware the "The Cultural Civil War" Narrative: You're Being Played

There is always common ground for those who dare to seek it.Remember the "Russians hacked our election!" hysteria--or have you already forgotten?  ...

The S&P 500 in Week 3 of August 2017

For the S&P 500, the third week of August 2017 looked an awful lot like the second week of the month. Specifically, if you look at the period from ...

Solar Eclipse is Big Business for Illinois

People from worldwide are converging on Southern Illinois on Monday to witness a total eclipse of the sun. I will be among that crowd. We booked o ...

Cuckoo For Cocoa/Commodity Catch Up/Stock Market Topping Process/China From Ground Level

Long-time no post - hope everyone's been well. Was away on a 3 week+ trip to China (the 6th country I've traveled to this year!). Had some difficu ...

Week in Review – August 18

Stock Indices Argentina stocks up big after the ruling coalition did better than expected in primary legislative elections last Sunday.  Emerging ...

US Sector ETF Performance – August 18

"The Taps Are Gushing" Hong Kong ATM Withdrawals Surge As Facial Recognition Fears Spread

Amid a crackdown on unauthorized mainland currency outflows by forcing ATM users to undertake facial recognition before cash is dispensed in Macau ...

Opening Round NAFTA Fissures Over the Meaning of “Substantial”: What’s the Best and Worst That Can Happen?

Trump is bound and determined to have his way in NAFTA negotiations whether or not anyone agrees with him. Ironically, not even the auto manufactu ...

Managing Sequence of Return Risk

In the 30 years ended 2016, the S&P 500 returned just over 10% per year. Compounding at that rate, fifty grand invested at the start of 1987 would ...

Surprise! Sharp Racial Divide Found Over Robert E. Lee Statue

News headlines in the United States have been dominated by the fallout from the Charlottesville protests throughout the last week. YouGov have pol ...

Global Risk Monitor – August 18

Click on table to enlarge and for better resolution

Builders Complain Of Record Labor Shortages: Up To 75% Of Employers Can't Find Workers

Late last month we reported the remarkable anecdote of an Ohio factory owner who has numerous blue-collar jobs available at her company, but has o ...

Notes From Underground: Its Was a Great Week for S&Ps

The news was extremely positive for the equity markets last week. FOUR key points: Retail Sales proved to be much stronger than consensus; The FOM ...

California And Maryland Lead The Nation In Mortgage Fraud Risk Correlation (San Francisco, Baltimore and San Diego Lead)

According to CoreLogic, California and Maryland are the states that are most highly correlated with fraud risk (and are the areas that will be the ...

Which States Have The Most Mortgage Fraud

In a recent blog post by CoreLogic, the real estate consultancy has determined the regions of the U.S. that have the highest correlation with the ...

China's Plunge Protection Team Holds $150 Billion In Stock, Claims "State Meddling" Stabilizes Markets

It was two years ago, in June of 2015, when just as the Shanghai Composite was flirting with 5,000 and when literally the local banana stand guy w ...

A Reswitching Bifurcation, Reflected

Figure 1: Two Bifurcation Diagrams Horizontally Reflecting1.0 IntroductionThis post continues my investigation of structural economic dynamics. I ...

Imagining the next bear market

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timi ...

Deep Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Reach 2007 Levels: The Next Big Short?

Subprime auto delinquencies have staked up so much that we are back at 2007 milestone levels. (more…)

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Essere Umano

"What has become of King Don Juan? And the Princes of Aragon, What has become of any of them? What remains of our handsome nobility? And of the ma ...

Sitcom Britain

I said years ago that if we ever had an authoritarian movement in Britain it would not have uniforms, goose-stepping marches and torchlight parade ...

Chart of the Day: He Who Pays The Piper Calls The Tune

SYRIZA's Definition Of Communism

Thanks to an article in KeepTalkingGreece, I now have an entirely new definition of what Communism was:It seems to me that the Greek Justice Minis ...

James Heckman — ‘Nobel prize’ winner gone wrong

Here’s James Heckman in 2013: “Also holding back progress are those who claim that Perry and ABC are experiments with samples too small to accurat ...

We Need a Social Revolution

Governments and corporations cannot restore social connectedness and balance to our lives.In the conventional view, there are two kinds of revolut ...

US Asset Bubbles Crack as Frantic China “Restricts” Outbound Investments

What happens to prices when the biggest, reckless buyer walks away?

Chinese Export Prices to the U.S. Fall 0.9% in July, 2017.

The aggregate prices of products imported into the United States from China across all industries in July declined 0.9% over the last twelve month ...

Transports And North Korea On The Radar

On August 1st we warned in our post, Watch This Space – Industrials v Transports, to monitor the Dow Industrials-Transports divergence: Not as rel ...

Evolution of the Trump Administration: An Op Ed

Donald Trump seems to be missing some sort of a regulator that prevents him from simply saying what temporarily happens to be on his mind. That ma ...

And The Best State To Grow Old In Is...

Elder-care company Caring.com recently conducted a study to determine the best US states to grow old in. And the winner is… Utah. That's right: In ...

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