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Christmas Crash or Santa Claus Rally?

  The Santa Claus Rally –  A Well-Known Recurring Phenomenon every year a certain stock market phenomenon is said to recur, anticipated with excit ...


An optimistic forecast concerning the inconsistent ambitions of Lexiters and Brexiters

David Chivers, [AP in macro at Durham University], wrote today: We can debate just where the electorate agree on post Brexit plans.  But they sur ...


The US economy is slowing but how quickly?

A feature of recent times has been the way that economic growth forecasts have been trimmed somewhat. This morning has already seen two examples o ...


Disconfirming rational expectations

Empirical efforts at testing the correctness of the rational expectations hypothesis have resulted in a series of empirical studies that have more ...


Backfire Economics In China

"Backfire Economics" is a series of posts by Mark Perry that focuses on the unintended, yet often predictable consequences of the tariffs that Pre ...


Who Will Be Hurt By The US-China Trade War?

Tensions between the United States and China intensified last week when the CFO of one of China’s largest tech companies was arrested in Canada at ...


California To Tax Text Messages? Like WTF!

California regulators are weighing a flat tax on text messaging which would help fund a program to make phone service available to low-income resi ...


Risk Sharers of the World, Unite!

I have a new working paper titled "Better Risk Sharing Through Monetary Policy? The Financial Stability Case for a Nominal GDP Target". I presente ...


How Close is the Fed to a Corridor System?

I recently participated at an AEI event that showcased George Selgin's new book on the Fed's floor operating system. My role at the event was to c ...


Walmart Testing Flippy The Job-Stealing Robot Cook

Walmart is testing out a new kitchen robot assistant named "Flippy" at its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters in order to see if it might make for ...


Second Canadian Citizen Disappears In China

For a trade war that was supposed to be between the US and China, Canada has found itself increasingly in the middle of the crossfire. And so afte ...


“Oil Bust 2” Kicks off with Parker Drilling Bankruptcy

But look how the bonds got manipulated up 24% in one minute at the close.


Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Could Go Even HigherMortgage rates rose more noticeably today as a part of a 3 day boun ...


US Households Now Own More Treasuries Than The Fed

One of the key concerns voiced by finance professionals, politicians and rates traders over the past year, has been the gradual drop in foreigners ...


Harvard's $39B Endowment Is Secretly Acquiring California's Water Supply

Harvard University's endowment (valued at $39 billion as of 2018) is the largest academic endowment in the world. The private investment company h ...


Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Equities Rally, Fade in the Afternoon - Sitting In a Savage Garden

"It is no exaggeration to say that since the 1980s, much of the global financial sector has become criminalised, creating an industry culture that ...


Middle Income Trap or the Return of US Hegemony

Short essay in Spanish for the special (40 year anniversary of the journal Coyuntura y Desarrollo, published by the Fundación de Investigaciones p ...


Good and bad news from the sentiment front

Mid-week market update: This market is becoming increasingly jittery. Indeed, the chart below shows that the stock market moves more per dollar tr ...


Denver Real Estate in November: Sales Down 24% YoY, Inventory Up 47%

From the DMAR: Housing inventory in the Denver area is up nearly 47 percent year to date compared to last year, but sales are down.In November, ye ...


Hello Taxpayers! Fed’s Balance Sheet Suffered Substantial Losses In Q3 (Record $66.453 Billion)

Hello Taxpayers! According to the Fed’s latest quarterly financial report, The Fed’s massive portfolio suffered substantial losses when hit a reco ...


Houston Real Estate in November: Sales Unchanged YoY, Inventory Up 9%

From the HAR: Houston Real Estate is on Track for Another Record YearIn a display of textbook seasonality, with the holidays sending consumers int ...


From 'Too Cheap' To 'Too Expensive' - Canadian Crude Soars Over 80% After Output Cuts

Since Alberta Premier Rachel Notley announced an oil production cut of 325,000 bpd beginning next month, the spot price for Western Canadian Selec ...


Ugly, Tailing 10Y Auction Drags Yields To Session Highs

After yesterday's mediocre 3Y auction and today's selloff across the curve, moments ago the US Treasury sold $24 billion in 10Y paper in an auctio ...


Tesla On Autopilot Slams into Police Car Despite "100 Meters of Traffic Cones and Warning Lights"

In the latest incident to take place while a Tesla car was on Autopilot, at least the authorities were on the scene quickly. That, of course, is b ...


Day of glory

 


Federal Debt Fixing To Cross $22 Trillion Level Soon

The rapidly exploding U.S. national debt is about to cross another critical threshold.  According to the U.S. Treasury, the debt of the federal go ...


House Prices As An Example Of Fed Risk Mispricing (Shiller’s The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?)

Yale economist and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller wrote an interesting op-ed in the New York Times entitled “The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. ...


Economic Effects of Islam

Timur Kuran "critically evaluates the analytic literature concerned with causal connections between Islam and economic performance" in his essay " ...


WTI Tumbles After Surprisingly Small Crude Draw

Having surged overnight on the heels of a huge API-reported crude draw (don't forget the seasonal incentive to lower taxable inventories), WTI Cru ...


What The Yellow Vest Protests Really Mean—The European Superstate Is Heading For The Dustbin Of History

A return of national sovereignty across Europe is no longer coming.  I think it’s here.  This can no longer be stage-managed as a relief valve of ...


Why Are the 'Yellow Vests' Protesting

"Four weekends of mass protests in Paris and in towns and villages across France have hampered economic activity while hurting the country’s image ...


Germany Accelerates Plans For Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank Megamerger

It seems the accelerating similarities between Deutsche Bank (once the most systemically dangerous bank in the world) and Lehman Brothers has fina ...


Animal Spirits Episode 59: Late Cycle

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Why every market correction feels different. 2018 stock market losses are in line wi ...


Why Gundlach Is "Scared Sick" Of The Global Economy

As we noted on several occasions, it has been a year where virtually every asset class has suffered negative returns. But emerging market equities ...


Core Inflation Rose Slightly To 2.2% YoY, Rent CPI Rises To 3.31% YoY (Zillow’s Rent Index Is At -0.07% YoY )

Core inflation rose slightly to 2.2% YoY from 2.1% in November. While core CPI YoY rose slightly, core PCE prices YoY have been falling. Rent CP ...