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27/4/17: Russian Economy Update, Part 3: Ruble and CBR Rates

The following is a transcript of my recent briefing on the Russian economy. This part (Part 3) covers outlook  for ruble and monetary policy for R ...

Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Wary of Auto Loans, Pack Them in Bonds (The Secret of NIM)

Yes, we are seeing the offloading of risk assets into structured bonds … again. (Bloomberg) – Matt Scully – Depending whose money they’re using, ...

After Clash, Musk Fires Head Of Key Tesla Subsidiary; Now It May Cost Him

Trouble is brewing in Elon Musk's paradise. Recall that two weeks ago we brought attention to a little followed disruption in Tesla's infrastructu ...

Six GDP Estimates (Three Revised Today): ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

Tomorrow the BEA will release its advance GDP number for first quarter GDP. I revised my estimate today as did ZeroHedge and GDPNow. The lowest es ...

Spectacular 7 Year Auction: Record Indirects, Soaring Bid To Cover

After a strong 2 Year on Tuesday, poor 5 Year on Wednesday we close the week with the Treasury's sale of $28 billion in 7 Year paper in what can o ...

It’s PBR Time! Atlanta Fed GDP Q1 Forecast Falls to 0.2% (Declining Durable Manufacturing, etc.)

Today opened with several negative economic reports, including a MoM decline in wholesale inventories and durable goods order ex-transportation. N ...

FPA: "ETFs Are Weapons Of Mass Destruction; We Could Get An Onslaught Of Selling"

One of the recurring themes on this website over the past two years has been the growing threat posed by the flood of capital out of active invest ...

Consider Yourselves Lucky You're Not A Canadian FX Trader

Presented with no comment...     Or Peso Trader...   Two words - flip... flop.

27/4/17: Russian Economy Update, Part 2: Two Key Sectors

Two key sectors to watchNow, looking at some sectors across the Russian economyManufacturing:In 2015, total volume of manufacturing output dropped ...

Bitcoin Spikes To Record Highs

US dollar prices for virtual currencies are soaring. Both Bitcoin ($1343 highs) and Ethereum (as we described previously) are at new record highs ...

Anadarko Crashes To 7-Month Lows; Shuts 3,000 Wells In Colorado After Explosions

Anadarko shares are down over 7% to 7-month lows following a home blast near a vertical well operated by the company causing it to shut all its ve ...

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for Q1 Drops to Almost Zero

I hope the forecasting model is broken.

Inventories: Another Hit to GDP Estimates for First Quarter

Wholesale inventories declined 0.1% for March while retail inventories rose 0.4% according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department. The r ...

26/4/17: Russian Economy Update, Part 1: Growth Outlook

The following is a transcript of my recent briefing on the Russian economy. This part (Part 1) covers general economic outlook for Russia over 201 ...

Aircraft Orders: The Only Durable Goods Item Humming

Durable goods orders for March rose 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus of 1.1%. Revisions lifted February gains from1.7% to 2.3%. Once again the good n ...

Crashing Canadian Mortgage Lender Bailed-Out By 321,000 Retired Ontario Healthcare Workers

With Canada's housing bubble popping amid the collapse of the country's largest mortgage lender, it was no surprise that a bailout had been orches ...

Pending Home Sales Drop In March - Stagnant For 2 Years

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes declined in March after rising a month earlier by the most since 2010, as perhaps the seasonal exuber ...

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.8% in March, up 0.8% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sale Dip 0.8% in MarchThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 0. ...

Atlanta Fed Throws In The Towel: Cuts Final Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.2%

Well that was fast: literally seconds ago we posted JPM's Q1 GDP forecast revision, saying "while we wait to see if the Atlanta Fed will cut its f ...

A Happier Global Economy

Since late last year, I’ve liked what I’ve been seeing abroad, especially in emerging economies. The latest batch of data out of China was cer ...

JPM Cuts Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.3%

While we wait to see if the Atlanta Fed will cut its final Q1 GDP estimate ahead of tomorrow's official print to 0% or negative, here comes JPM wh ...

"Amber Warning Sign" Issued For EURUSD Bulls

While Draghi's conference was supposed to be relatively boring, it was anything but, with the EUR first sliding on the statement's suggestion that ...

Demand and the Frac Sand Example

Most people who teach economics are on a continual lookout for current examples of supply and demand. Otherwise, you end up falling back on  hypot ...

"Growth Becoming Increasingly Solid": Euro Spikes On Upbeat Draghi Comments

After initially sliding to session lows following the ECB's announcement in which the ECB cautioned it could expand QE in size and duration, the E ...

Q1 GDP Takes Another Hit As Wholesale Inventories Slide In March

With non-hope-based GDP forecasts for Q1 at cycle lows, today's wholesale inventories decline will not help. After dropping in January, and reboun ...

Core Durable Goods Orders Tumble Most Since June

After 8 months of gains, amid crowing analysts celebrating America's revival, core durable goods orders dropped 0.2% in March - the biggest drop s ...

The non-cost of the triple lock

Brad DeLong used to run a series of posts asking “why oh why can’t we have a better press corps?” Coverage of the pensions triple lock reminds me ...

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and NAFTA to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” s ...

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Ready To Expand QE If Outlook Worsens; Euro Slides

There was no surprise in the ECB's monetary policy statement released moments ago, in which the central bank kept all three of its rates unchanged ...

End of empire

"Already, China dominates world trade. Her own economy is already significantly larger than that of the US on the PPP estimates. While being the l ...

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