Todd Eberle Stares Into The Creative Soul Of The World’s Greatest Architects #design
John Oliver examines what Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner have actually done
OReilly: Fans will be shaken when truth comes out about Fox exit
Fewer Graft Suspects Fleeing China Amid Tighter Controls #chinagraft #operationfoxhunt
Weak cooperatives and high input costs hike Greek food prices
Why is Hindu nationalism on the rise in India?
‘Walk a mile’ in a #Rohingya refugee’s shoes through new app
Switching electricity providers slow to catch on outside urban areas #ELECTRICITY #電気
Arkansas carries out first double execution in US since 2000
From prostitutes in Bangladesh to Libyan fighters: award-winning photos
Students sue UC Berkeley over canceled Ann Coulter speech
Australian FM in Japan on regional security
Australian FM in Japan on regional security
DNC chair Perez draws criticism for frequent swearing in speeches
What would a Le Pen victory mean for France?
Take a look at the front page of The Wall Street Journal Europe
U.K. companies are disclosing gender pay gaps and they’re huge
US supreme court sides with cops testimony and blocks jury trial
Should we be worried about SpaceXs plan to fuel the Falcon 9 with astronauts on board?
Law School Needs More Political Ideological Balance #tcot
Chile rocked by 6.9-magnitude quake; no major damage reported
Republican North Carolina judge resigns — and slams the GOP on the way out
Indias central bank chief says cash bans effects are ‘transitory’
#Xi Jinping’s reading list, from Flaubert to Kissinger
#Japan Leading Economic Index Final at 104.8
#Africa to pilot worlds first malaria vaccine
#France Business Confidence at 104.8
Business and state collaboration crucial to hit carbon reduction targets, says Lord Turner
Poll: Disapproval growing of Paul Ryan and GOP Congress
We present clear evidence that women select partners who resemble their brothers.
#Japan Coincident Index Final at 115.3
Former White House spokesman doesnt have a ton of sympathy for Sean Spicer
North Korea Detains U.S. Citizen, Amid Rising Tensions
Fire investigator takes the stand in Sockeye wildfire trial
Cities ask EU to put people first
Will Nigerian Singer Blackface to Sue 2Face? #Nigeria
#Germany rebuffs #EU proposals for auto industry controls
Bees are sloppy dancers, but that’s alright. @Inkfish
Obamas former UN ambassador apologizes for not recognizing Armenian genocide
Strategists and economists were blindsided by the 5-week rally in Treasuries
Fresenius #Buys $AKRX for $4.3 Billion in U.S. Expansion | @business | #MnA
Venezuela death toll rises as unrest enters fourth week
23 photos that show how clothing is advertised and what consumers actually get
This $200 AI will end tennis club screaming matches
Add digital gatekeeper to Amazons crusade to take over the world via @Bfly
Sina Corp. chief steers Chinas Twitter deeper into Internet finance
The battle royale in the Indian Ocean is looking pretty one-sided. via @BV
Spy agencies from Five eyes gather in New Zealand - PM, sources
Global Services: Business confidence remains strong in April. #SMI
Serena fires back at Nastase for racist comments
U.S. judge lifts stay on second Arkansas execution
Trump Tower Mumbai apartment sales are set to resume after a post-election pause
Apple recruits NASA talent for its big AR push
Apple is planning its biggest iPhone overhaul to date
Earnings dont lie about lofty stock valuations, but they can mislead via @Bfly
France braces for a runoff fight between nationalism and globalism
Thun Tankers orders four tankers at AVIC Dingheng
A wave of summerlike warmth will sweep across the eastern U.S. late week:
IBM says CEO pay is $33 million. Others say it is far higher
Giulianis talk with Erdogan adds mystery to a U.S. sanctions case
Goldman shows the Volcker Rule may not be such a bad thing after all via @Bfly
Trump looks to Australia for inspiration for his planned $1 trillion infrastructure program
Ready for take-off? Chinas answer to Boeing now just needs to sell
Trump looks to Australia for inspiration for his planned $1 trillion infrastructure program
Ivanka Trump to give a speech in Berlin as Germany’s chancellor seeks a White House conduit
Chinese president phones Trump to ask him to avoid aggravating tensions with North Korea:
T-Mobile open to merger talks, new subscribers top estimates
Inside Japans politically powerful nerve center
UC-Davis Student Government: No US Flag at Our Meetings #tcot
Our lifespans keep growing, but how long should humans actually live for?
Euro pauses after rally, Canadian dollar hit by U.S. duties on lumber
Oil edges up after six days of straight losses
Malaysian Ringgit is 4.3800 to one U.S. Dollar
Berkshire Hathaway Adds $250 Million to its Stake in Liberty Media
Its never too late to invest in the future. #MoveTheMoney Get your full tax receipt here:
On China’s central plains, an ‘aerotropolis’ grows near Zhengzhou
Ahead of NAFTA talks, U.S. sets 20 percent duties on Canadian softwood lumber
PHOTOS: Unrest in Kashmir
Matt Drudge sends rare tweet: Maddow #1 in TV news. Welcome to hell.
Christie Booker Ask for Tunnel Funding
How early-childhood programming helps immigrant parents, by @taragarciam
Conferencia de Yanis Varoufakis. @IAENEDU @yanisvaroufakis #YanisVaroufakisEnECUADOR #OtroEventodeCalidad #IAEN
Pricing North Korean Risk Into Market Difficult $
The French vote -- in maps.
Giant toys youll want to steal for yourself
By the concept of deep time, cacti are a new species on planet Earth.
Yale’s six-year-old Singapore campus is now harder to get into than the 316-year-old Yale
C-SPAN to broadcast Trump travel ban arguments in appeals court live
Venezuelan Indigenous people highlight achievements at UN forum
Rescue of Homeless Dog and 8 #Puppies in a Heavy Rainstorm Will Make Your Day! #Pets #dogs
Allergies? Turn your shower into a spa with these DIY aromatherapy squares
Pan-Africa: Price Inflation moderates slightly in April. #SMI
Trump admits he didnt know much about NATO when he called NATO obsolete
More on SEC site being down. They’re working on it!
Imagine Americas next generation are climate deniers... via @dw_environment
Liberal Indoctrination Camps Start at Kindergarten #tcot
Worlds deadliest animals
CNN Raised Alarm over Betsy DeVos and Her Student Loans Policies #tcot
Where the worlds major #crops and domesticated #animals originate from
Lake Powell, Reflection Canyon
FX market risk metrics looking increasingly complacent on the #Renmnibi $USDCNY $CYB $CNY
Can you digitally disappear?
Obama avoids mention of Trump as he steps back into public spotlight
Update: Arkansas carries out first double execution in one day in US since 2000
.@BrooklynDecker hopes to change the way you get dressed
IN PICTURES: 10 of the loveliest German old towns via @dw_culture
In #Yemen, A child under the age of 5 now dies every 10 minutes of preventable causes. #Aid4Yemen
Trump to order review of all national monuments designated since 96:
An introduction to thought experiments, with Daniel Dennett:
Could Marine Le Pen repeat Trumps victory in France?
Eating meat is bad for the planet—but what about just eating less meat?
Navig8 fixes two tanker charters
Fewer corruption suspects flee #China as Beijing makes it harder with tighter controls
State Department website posts article on Trumps Florida resort
Chris Matthews Suggested IRS Employees Leak Trump’s Audit Status #tcot
Death toll rises in worsening Venezuela unrest
Jake Tapper: The US is shamelessly advertising Trumps businesses
Gingrich Confident GOP Will Hold Georgia Seat
Obama jokes at first speech: Whats been going on while Ive been gone?
BREAKING: North Korea stages firing drill marking military anniversary - Yonhap
Step inside the largest outdoor laboratory in America — our national parks:
Original illustrations of our favorite German proverbs! by @Antje_Herzog
Senate gives limited resources to Russia election-meddling probe
Laser-eyed device could speed up NASAs search for life on Mars
Donald Trump has made socialism cool again
Sheryl Sandbergs new book a tale of grief, resilience
Nora isnt fine in The Leftovers, as @sophieGG and @skornhaber discuss
Everybodys listening to people who already agree with them.
Opinion: The human rights situation in Venezuela has deteriorated
GOP senator on Russia probe: Don’t confuse silence for lack of progress
What euro crisis?
Global Manufacturing: Business confidence remains strong in April. #SMI p
Trump declines to call mass killings of Armenians a genocide
Guten Morgen, Europe and the world!
Language issues for incoming Cambodian domestic helpers spark concern in #HongKong
Disappointed refugees driven to prostitution
Venezuela: 2 dead and many Injured in opposition-led violence
Tesla plans to double its SuperCharger network and introduce solar-powered stations
Trump to astronaut on drinking own urine: Better you than me
Study finds Samsungs S8 phones more prone to screen cracks
It’s A Bad Time To Owe Trigger Happy Donald Trump A Favour -
Also, when do we start talking about DUCs again? #OOTT
You can now rent hotel rooms by the minute
Zimbabwean Parastatal Boss Denn Was Murdered - Report #Zimbabwe
SP 500 closed up over 1% today, only the 3rd 1% move in 2017. Least volatile year in a long time thus far. $SPX
Fox and Friends anchor named spokeswoman at State Department
#Germanys DAX hits all-time high on #France, Ifo index via @dw_business
Are you beginning to get how this works now? #France2017
How Israeli aid workers try to help Syrian refugees by @Dana_Regev
Bill Gates thinks this is the most beautiful chart in the world -- heres why:
Local #Venezuelan #Socialist Party Leader Assassinated in Miranda State
Trump administration launches punitive tariff on Canadian lumber
See that beautiful river of light? Thats Steve
Global All-Sector: Sales Managers Report Increasing Rate of Growth in April. #SMI
Tate Harmer reveals plans for £8.5 million hotel at the Eden Project:
Obama: Someone opposed to immigration system isn’t ‘automatically a racist’
A Game of Volatility Chicken $
SeedPlus closes first fund with $18m for seed-stage startups
Cost cutting at the oil majors has really been quite something. #OOTT Via Morgan Stanley:
6 Easy Steps to Turbo Boost Climate Action in Local Government
Chile rocked by 6.9-magnitude quake; no major damage reported
#Britain celebrates first “coal-free day” since beginning of the Industrial Revolution 
WH: GA Election Big Loss; USS Vinson On Its Way
Caterpillars could solve plastic pollution.
Trump to impose 20 percent tax on Canadian softwood lumber imports
These drink recipes do without alcohol - and still taste amazing WATCH:
Thin Mint Ice Cream Sandwiches @kitchenwclovers #vegan
What is EPA Open Data, and why would it shut down?
Trump: I said NATO was obsolete because I didnt know anything about NATO
Asia follows China’s path to green bond growth /Euromoney magazine @StanChart [sponsored]
“It was like another planet.” These images of the Arctic by @mario_tama will astound you
Can we apply the methods of parenting when we teach morals to robots?
In photos: Tribes are reviving an Indian river nearly destroyed by #coal mining
7 key findings on the state of the middle class in Western Europe
The French election party continues for Asian stocks -- and Chinas rallying.
Three million children at hunger risk during school holidays
Even opposition supporters call for end to violent protests #LaPatriaEnMovimiento #24Abr
Obama will receive $400K for Wall Street speech: report
SP Tech Sector ETF closes at a new all time high for the first time since March 2000 (total return). $XLK
Berkeley students who invited Ann Coulter to speak sue university
New York Denies Parole to Getaway Driver Judith Clark
New York Times Updates Its 2015 Hillary Clinton FBI Investigation Story
.@JVenook looks at the surreal world of the Trump Organizations twitter accounts
Poll: Disapproval growing of Paul Ryan and GOP Congress
@freakonometrics move to Tokyo?
.@EmmanuelMacron leads in polls as #France prepares to vote in runoff elections
Tianjin Rolls Out Draft Regulations on Shared Bikes
UPDATE: After temporary halt, second Arkansas execution will proceed: reports
‘Sanctuary City’ No More: Michigan City Council Reverses Decision #tcot
9 retro-themed space travel posters that may make you want to move to Pluto:
Asia: Sales Managers Report Increasingly Rapid Growth in April. #SMI
Trump: Chinese president likes me a lot
Watch Jake Tapper destroy Trump’s entire first 100 days in 4 minutes
From #EmmanuelMacrons teacher to Frances next first lady? #frenchelection2017
Cities cant fix the new urban crisis—or at least, not on their own
The U.K.’s largest bank says the French vote is a ‘game changer’ for the euro
Obama at political roundtable for Chicago youth: Im old!
2016 was a horrible year for anti-Semitic hate crimes. 2017 is much worse.
Jamie Dimon: I never had a mentor @omil_xia
Owner Struggles to Herd 10 Kittens
Trump: UN ambassador Haley could easily be replaced
This summer at NECSI: Learn how to build models and map networks.
How 100 artists redesigned the modern office’s most obsolete object:
A caterpillar that eats and digests plastic in record time
Mizzou Shuts Down Three Dorm Halls due to Plunging Enrollment #tcot
Venezuelas death toll rises as unrest enters fourth week
The Right And The Wrong Arguments For Indexing $
Well, lets get to scraping, my friends.
Jesus Sulbaran and Daniel Infante were both killed at pro-government rallies today in Venezuela.
Along the North Korean Border ht @phnk
On #HolocaustRemembranceDay its worth reflecting on this part of American history too.
DNC chair Perez draws criticism for frequent swearing in speeches
A girl and her pitbull.
EU warns Britain - Dont assume free trade deal for the City
State Department website posts article on Trumps Florida resort
Restaurants in Japan are thwarting the nation’s push toward a “smoke-free” Olympics
Spain, Brazil plan subsea fibre optic cable by 2019
The battle royale in the Indian Ocean is looking pretty one-sided. via @BV
he market is going bonkers over France’s election result — here’s how in 5 wild charts
Chris Christie gives Trump a B on his presidency so far
Esperance Community Farewells Teen Surfer Killed by Shark
Ensco secures multiple contracts and extensions
#Philippines: Army says killed 36 #IslamicState-linked militants in three days
Germany is deporting Afghan asylum-seekers
#SDR priced in #Gold (1968-2017) - Dan Popescu
Corruption cases in finance, cheaper pork and chicken: Heres what Chinese media are saying
#5things you need to know to start your day in Asian markets.
France may be about to have its most unusual first lady ever
The sad saga of North Koreas ATMs, an alien concept in Pyongyangs shiny new airport
11 things I never knew about flying… until I became a flight attendant
New Orleans begins removal of Confederate statues
Oracles creating an internal startup to drive its VR and AI efforts
Trump is looking to Australia for tips on infrastructure
The US rates market resembles the FX market five years ago $
Banks are backing out of $1.7 trillion in Chinese investments
Scots dont want another independence vote - Kantar poll
Trump-backed Navy expansion would boost costs some $400 billion over 30 years: study
Apple delays release of first original series Carpool Karaoke
Asia stocks, euro steady as markets pause for breath after French election
5 things you didnt know you needed for your next workout
7.1-magnitude quake causes power cuts in central Chile; no injuries reported
Trump slams new polls as fake news—except for the stuff thats good for him
Our broken justice system may well be entrenched for more than a generation.
Conducting reindeer is a hard job... good morning from the Yamal peninsula, picture by photographer Sergey Anisimov
Weather: Cold and windy with sunshine and showers
Finance Security: We know more about the United incident where a.. #economy
The sad saga of North Koreas ATMs, an alien concept in Pyongyangs shiny new airport
Philippines: Lawyer of ‘#DeathSquad’ hitman files complaint against #Duterte at #ICC
Opinion: #Germany must take anti-Semitism fear seriously
Porsche is making a laptop, and its as expensive as youd imagine


Political Calculations

Ironman is the alias of the blogger at Political Calculations, a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics. We should acknowledge that Ironman is either formerly or currently, and quite possibly, simultaneously employed as some kind of engineer, researcher, analyst, rocket scientist, editor and perhaps as a teacher of some kind or another. The scary thing is that's not even close to being a full list of Ironman's professions and we should potentially acknowledge that Ironman may or may not be one person. We'll leave it to our readers to sort out which Ironman might behind any of the posts that do appear here or comments that appear elsewhere on the web!


The S&P 500 in Week 3 of April 2017
8 days ago




The third week of April 2017 had bigger negatives than positives for the U.S. economy and markets, with stock prices behaving accordingly during the week. In this case, we think that those negatives led investors to bet that the Fed would delay the timing of its next expected rate hikes into the third quarter of 2017, which pulled the S&P 500 closer toward where our dividend futures-based model projects that stock prices would be if investors were fully focused on that period of time in the future.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2017Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 13 April 2017

In the chart above, we observe that investors are still splitting their forward-looking focus between the current quarter of 2017-Q2 and 2017-Q3, where the weighting between these two quarters is now tilted slightly more heavily toward 2017-Q3.

The big reasons for that change are evident from the news for the week. First, from the perspective of economic fundamentals, banking stocks declined because of an apparent deceleration in the rate of growth for their lending operations.

The second reason has more to do with the effect of noise, in this case, arising from geopolitical concerns. Here, our thinking is the increase of tensions between the U.S. and Syria, increasing tensions with North Korea, and also the deployment of the U.S.' largest aerial-delivered ordnance in Afghanistan during the week is contributing to the future outlook of investors in that they are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be more likely to pursue a policy of greater stability with respect to U.S. interest rates, which would be realized by the Fed keeping interest rates steady for a longer period of time.

Combined, these two events, one fundamentally-driven and one noise-driven, led investors to collectively refocus their attention away from 2017-Q2 and toward 2017-Q3 instead.

The interesting thing about this dynamic is that our model indicates that stock prices have considerably more room to move toward either quarter than was the case for the investing outlook during 2016-Q4 and 2017-Q1, when investors could shift their forward-looking attention between the future quarters of 2017-Q1 or 2017-Q2 without any noticeable impact on stock prices. We estimate that there's currently a potential 300 point spread between the alternative trajectories for the two quarters, where as of 13 April 2017, stock prices could fall by more than 130 points if investors were to fully focus on 2017-Q3.

But whether it might will depend upon what new information investors learn during the weeks ahead. As for what news influenced investors in Week 3 of April 2017, just scroll down for our summary of what we identified as the week's more significant headlines.

Monday, 10 April 2017
Tuesday, 11 April 2017
Wednesday, 12 April 2017
Thursday, 13 April 2017

Barry Ritholtz summarized the holiday-shortened week's positives and negatives for the U.S. economy and markets.