Very modest growth continues from the lows following the crash in oil capex, and note that the numbers are not inflation adjusted:
The painfully slow recovery following the crash continues, and note the numbers are not population adjusted:
Trumped up expectations fading:
By Josh Zumbrun
Apr 13 (WSJ) — Following the election, respondents to The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of forecasters significantly raised their estimates for growth, inflation and interest rates. In December, the average forecast called for 2.3% growth in the first quarter. That had fallen to 1.9% in March and dipped again to 1.4% in this month’s survey. In January, 71% of economists in the Journal’s survey were including significant fiscal policy changes in their forecasts. In April, that number was down to 44%. A majority now say “significant” changes are unlikely, although many said a small fiscal boost remains possible.
Slowing loan growth finally making the news:
By David Henry
Apr 14 (Reuters) — Big U.S. banks revealed more evidence of a slowdown in loan growth in their earnings reports on Thursday. JPMorgan’s core loan portfolio averaged $812 billion during the first quarter, up 9 percent on an annualized basis. But that growth rate has ticked down from 12 percent in the previous quarter and 17 percent a year ago. Wells Fargo’s annual loan growth rate of 4 percent has also been slowing over the past year. Citigroup’s loan book has been skewed by divestitures and its acquisition of a credit-card portfolio. Adjusting for those matters, Citi’s core loan book grew 5 percent in the first quarter.