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Mike Shedlock

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He operates the blog MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis and believes in the Austrian School of economics.


Theresa May Calls Snap Elections, Pound Soars: Election Coup?

4 months ago




UK prime minister Theresa May shocked the UK by calling for snap elections after stating just last month she would not do so.

In response, the British Pound soared.

The Labour Party is going to get smacked hard in the June election, and May will have free rein to do whatever she wants in the Brexit negotiations.

Snap Election Speech

Flash Crash to the Upside

The Wall Street Journal reports Sterling Soars After U.K.’s Theresa May Calls Early Election.

Deutsche Bank, analysts at which were among the most negative on the pound, referred to Ms. May’s announcement as a game-changer for sterling and dropped its two-year recommendation for clients to sell the currency. The pound had slumped before Mrs. May’s surprise announcement Tuesday morning in London, then rose sharply and leapt again in the evening.

Alan Ruskin, co-head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, described the late sudden move as a “flash crash to the upside,” with the pound surging higher “and briefly nobody on the other side.”

U-Turn

The Guardian reports General election 2017: poll suggests voters back Theresa May U-turn.

Theresa May has stunned her colleagues, commentators and the country by announcing that there will be a general election on 8 June. This means the public will be asked to take part in a major poll less than a year after the EU referendum. The next seven weeks will allow May, who became prime minister without winning an election and whose premiership until now has been dominated by Brexit, to set out in full her vision for the domestic policy. The campaign and the result are likely to have far-reaching consequences not just for government policy over the next five years, but for Brexit, for the Labour party and for the union with Scotland too.

Potential Landslide

The Conservatives go into the general election riding high in the polls and confident of returning with an overwhelming majority. The latest clutch of opinion polls have put the Tories more than 20 points ahead of Labour suggesting they could be on course for a landslide.

General Election is ‘Foregone Conclusion’

Here is one poll you can believe: General Election is ‘Foregone Conclusion’.

A Times/YouGov poll published on Monday put the Conservatives on 44% and Labour on 23%, giving May a 21-point lead – the same as a weekend Comres survey and the highest for the Tories in government since May 1992.

The first poll published after the election announcement confirms the picture. The Guardian/ICM poll put the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 26%, Ukip on 11, the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 4%.

The outright Tory victory in the 2015 general election led to a mixture of anger and contempt showered on the polling companies which had spent six weeks indicating that a second coalition was the most likely outcome. No polling organization came close to the seven-point lead in the share of the vote that the Conservatives actually achieved and there were calls for them to be placed under state regulation.

Coral’s Latest Odds for Most Seats

A UK General Election 2017 Telegraph Poll Tracker indicates Theresa May could win a huge Tory majority in Parliament. Here are the latest odds.

  • Conservative – 1/12
  • Labour – 10/1
  • Lib Dems – 28/1
  • Ukip – 100/1
  • Greens – 500/1

The Telegraph offers a word of caution “the race could change dramatically once the party manifestos have been launched and the campaign starts in earnest.”

Here’s a hint. The polls won’t change dramatically, but even if they do, the Tories are guaranteed to pick up far more seats than they have now.

Duty to Stop Theresa May!?

The most ridiculous idea of the day in regards to the snap election comes from Guardian writer Anne Perkins who says This is no general election, it’s a coup – MPs have a duty to stop Theresa May

Theresa May has turned democracy against itself. She has been seduced by the siren evidence of the 20-point lead in the polls, and she will have a general election, the one she said again and again that she would not call. And it will almost certainly return her with a thumping majority that will allow her to run the Brexit negotiations just as she wants.

There will be no obligation on her to reflect the views of the minority position. She will leave the remainers of England disempowered. She has made a Scottish referendum inevitable, and a border poll in Northern Ireland infinitely more likely. She is resetting politics in a way that will entrench division. We will all rue this day.

Amazing Comeupance

Perkins does not like the Brexit vote. That is her prerogative. But to equate giving people a chance to vote to a “coup” is ridiculous, depending of course on the definition one uses.

Given the above paragraphs, especially Perkins’ preposterous statement “We will all rue this day,” it is contextually clear she refers to definition one, clearly a preposterous idea.

Along similar lines, let’s discuss her idea that a “border poll in Northern Ireland is infinitely more likely”. For that to be the case the odds had to be 0% before and any positive number now. One in a quadrillion will suffice.

I suggest Perkins needs both a math lesson and an English lesson. The irony of her post is that she is the one symbolically calling for a coup that would ignore voter intentions.

Perfect Timing

It’s perfectly clear what this is all about.

Theresa May has a chance to smash Labour and she will do just that. At the same time, she can toss the Liberal Democrats under the bus for good, and that’s where they belong.

Instead of having to deal with bickering from the Left and Right while holding a tiny majority, May has a chance to stop the infighting and has taken it.

How the snap elections turn out in practice is up to May herself. I suggest May deserves a chance.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock