Questions and answers about the #US Supreme Courts decision on #Trumps #travelban
The children of Camorra gangsters
Bungee instructors terrible English blamed for girl leaping to death
What happens now after the U.S. Supreme Courts travel ban ruling?
Nobel Prize–winning economists come out against Senate GOP healthcare bill
It is high time to localise the energy transition
US judge blocks deportation of hundreds of Iraqis held in immigration sweeps
27 June 1905: Russian battleship Potemkin in the hands of mutinous crew.
How Israel gains from Egypt-Saudi Red Sea islands deal
NAFTA’s Market Growth Increases to 21 Month High in June. #SMI
Bitcoin, Ether lead digital currency slide from highs via @CamiRusso
Sleeping woman swallowed by sinkhole in central #China - her bedroom collapsed in heavy rain
Will some things change with newer generations? Today’s cartoon by @elchicotriste0:
Nigeria, Mexico Trade Volume Hits U.S.$600 Million #Nigeria
South Africa Takes Steps to Halt Spread of Bird Flu #SouthAfrica
Athens slams Tirana square makeover as ‘concealing irredentism’
Namuganza and Nantaba - Who Should Museveni Beat With His Stick?: #Uganda
Ugandan Singer Bobi Wine Arrested in Kasangati #Uganda
German 10y yields jump to 0.28% on hawkish Draghi speech.
Trump son-in-law Kushner hires prominent trial lawyer: NYT
Boxer crabs go to crazy lengths to keep a pair of pom-poms
The 25 most beloved CEOs in America
New CBO report could doom GOP healthcare bill:
U.S. threatens Syria, says Assad is planning chemical weapons attack
What price attention? How data harvesters are changing our minds
European law permits them to be thrown out now.
Train #travel tips for all coming to #France this #summer from @TheLocalFrance
There are now 2.1 million apps in the iPhone App Store — up from 500 in 2008.
Minerals produced by Base Titanium are used as inputs to a variety of diverse industries and products.
Does One Belt, One Road make commercial sense?
Majorities around the world think of Trump as arrogant, intolerant and dangerous
Refugee Summit Leaves Uganda Still in Need Over U.S.$ 1 Billion: #EastAfrica
*DRAGHI: DEFLATION RISK NOW PRICED OUT OF INFLA EXPECTATIONS
To Elisa from Italy Thanks for the excellent tiramisu! #gratitudeproject cc @OxfordAOPP
South western France placed on alert for violent storms
US judge blocks deportation of hundreds of Iraqis held in immigration sweeps
Top US senator threatens to block arms sales to GCC countries over Qatar row
Kurodas still buying Japanese bonds
Denmark is killing Tesla (and other electric cars)
Stormy conditions with flash flooding and hail will threaten #Germany into Wednesday:
10 SP 500 health-care companies with the highest percentages of “buy” ratings:
Witnesses Report Sinking Ship After Explosion: #Somalia
Global business confidence remains very strong in June. #SMI
#Norways $960bn sovereign wealth fund urges banks to disclose #carbonfootprint of loans
A video of the explosion in Kiev that killed a military man as he was driving a Mercedes
H/T @GuyJohnsonTV
Draghi: a tapering is not a tightening. Say what you want, the President rocks at communication.
Israel bombs Gaza after rocket fire
Top CNN employees resign after network retracts Trump-Russia story
#Norway heads the table for the availability of charging positions for plug-in EVs #OOTT
Museveni Cancels Multi-Billion Chinese Mining Deal Over Bribe: #Uganda
Swede Held by Al-Qaida Freed After 6 Years: #Mali
Oh hello @ConversationCA
Bloomberg View: Europes banking union fails its latest test via @BV
Advisers concerned over poor communications with FCA
Social media giants step up fight against extremist content
Albanias Socialists take full control of parliament for first time since communisms end
Russias Rosneft targets bigger gas output, lower costs
The Italian bank CEO winning big from collapse of Veneto lenders
Equity and bond investors are split on the prospects for Baidu
Swede Held by Al-Qaida Freed After 6 Years: #Mali
Nice visualization of Chinas recent deleveraging efforts, via Deutsche Bank:
RUSI Director @kvonhippel welcoming delegates and CGS to the #RUSILWC
Europe was never keen on Bush, loved Obama, hates Trump
With Alphabet, Google faces a daunting challenge: organizing itself
China’s latest logistics IPO is hard to unpack
California to list glyphosate as cancer-causing; Monsanto vows fight
Did Corbyn have the right approach to Brexit after all?
Chinese Premier Li says China will meet it growth goals and pledges free trade support
School secession is segregation
Lightning bolts illuminate the sky above Annaberg-Buchholz in Saxony, Germany on June 22nd (DPA/Andre März)
Japan Pension Fund Manager Shows the Struggle for Abenomics: via @business @tomredjp
Armyworm Still Wreaks Havoc On Maize: #Ethiopia
Inside #Monopolys secret war against the Third Reich: @eurogamer #longreads
Economy Min Papadimitriou invites foreign entrepreneurs to #invest in food sector #Greece
#Colombias #FARC disarmament confirmed by United Nations
White House: Assad is potentially preparing another chemical attack in Syria
Pakistan’s illegal kidney trade is propped up by poor and wealthy
Trump urges @narendramodi to relax Indian trade barriers in maiden meeting
Time to stock up those Norwegian salmons.
Eleven of them now
Heineken offers to sell pubs to ease competition worries on Punch Taverns takeover
Mexico: Market Growth Index increases to the highest level in 17 months in June. #SMI
Throw a few more cajas on the pile
Museveni to Face Off With Besigye in Kyadondo: #Uganda
#Russia Corporate Profits at RUB3.2T
Arnold Lobels “Frog and Toad” endures as an amphibious celebration of same-sex love:
U.S. threatens Syria, says Assad is planning chemical weapons attack
And you thought the SP 500 Index was expensive! #smallcaps via @Callum_Thomas
Beyond Demographics: A New Way of Looking at Cities
Fires being brought under control in #Huelva #Andalucia #Environment
haha, amazing that ZeroHedge I love Dick take place in Marfa, Texas @alexandrascaggs
Climate change will make your coffee cost more and taste worse
Players Remember Marc Vivien Foe As They Leave Russia: #Cameroon
#Italy Business Confidence at 107.3
#Italy Consumer Confidence at 106.4
How humans can stay ahead of machines, according to Alibaba founder Jack Ma via @CNBC
Dems hold sit in on Capitol steps to protest GOP ObamaCare repeal bill
#Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals year-on-year at 7.2%
Will Tanzania Keep Street Named After Wanyama ? #Kenya #Tanzania
Security software player Trend Micro launches $100m venture fund
#Germany tells Erdogans bodyguards to stay away from #Hamburg #G20
Tag your best friend tell them what you value most about your friendship!
A timeline of Colombia’s peace process.
Children in Stalingrad hiding from bombing by German planes. 1942. Photographer L.I. Konov.
Highway in the sky! Chongqing residents drive on road built on rooftop
#Myanmar troops on high alert after spate of attacks blamed on #Rohingya insurgents
Investors await Bank of England report and Yellen appearance in London
Canadian soldier becomes first female infantry officer to captain UK queens guard
Brazil Food Price Index for June: 151.5, previous: 154.9 (change: -2.2%) #WPI
DOF Subsea wins pair of new contracts
Former PM Valls quits Socialists to join Macrons army of MPs in parliament
Greek owners stump up extra cash for state budget
Golden Energy awarded PSV contract by Total
#Libya #Libyaoil Petroleum Economist map of Libyas current oil/military dispositions tangle.
IN PICTURES: Modi meets Trump - Click
MUST WATCH: Uber vehicle set on fire as antibodies take to the streets -
Fox News reporter to Sean Spicer: The American people expect transparency
Ugandan Muslim Leader Tells Govt to Spend Less On Weapons #Kenya #Tanzania #Uganda
#ECB to stay loose for a very long time: HSBCs Major via @markets
Former Prime Minister Summoned By Police Over Uknown Reasons: #Tanzania
#Ethiopia: East Africas new economic power
Kenya reconciliation faces major election test: (@irinnews)
Troops in Myanmars Rakhine on high alert after killings of Rohingya
PES president: Unlike EPP, socialists do not impose decisions on member parties
Two arrested in Swiss anti-terror operation
Police arrest drug mule colleague
Sanders ignores Fox News question about FBI probe of his wife
Boy travels 230km from Morocco to Spain clinging under bus
guys weve been found out
Chinese blockchain salaries @ReutersGraphics
U.S. to list China among worst human trafficking offenders -sources
Worlds biggest wealth fund is refusing to be silenced: @ScouseView via @gadfly
One in five flights to popular holiday destinations are delayed by more than 30 minutes
Zimbabwe Warriors Massacre Mozambiques Os Mambas #Mozambique #Zimbabwe
U.S. judge halts deportation of Iraqis nationwide
Trolls Penis to be re-erected in Norway
Fresh landslide at site of disaster in #China
Good News as Worlds Whale Population Increases: #SouthAfrica
#JohnnyDepp may face perjury charge in #Australia over war on terrier
China customs mulls increasing checks on #thermalcoal imports, impeding flow, traders say
Burning bones helped prove that women were poisoned by glowing paint
At platform 9-3/4, Harry Potter fans mark 20 years of magic
The trash heap phenomenon
Nestles first activist investor may trigger more divestments
PM steps in in row between ministry and trash collectors
#Sweden Balance of #Trade at SEK 2.8B
Celebrate Labours electoral success - but dont forget the working class, writes @lisanandy
FBI questions Trump campaign adviser multiple times in Russia investigation: report
60-year-old Arkansas prison escapee recaptured after more than three decades on the run.
#Sweden PPI year-on-year at 7.2%
Founder of fintech platform being used in 95 countries shares his expansion strategy
The passive investing revolution is leaving opportunities in its wake @MylesUdland
#Sweden PPI month-on-month at 0.0%
Global yield curve flattening continues. German 2s/10s yield spread drops below 86bps.
Amendment for hirings in municipal sanitation services tabled in parliament #Greece
FM @NikosKotzias to participate in conference on #Cyprus issue in #Switzerland #Greece
RT if you owned this ball...
Debenhams warns of market volatility as sales fall
Germany brands Arab states’ Qatar demands ‘very provocative’
Tell @Apple, @SamsungMobile, @LGUSAMobile to give us repairable and long lasting products!
Want a laptop thats easy to repair? Look beyond Apple and Microsoft
Boniface Mwangi, Betty Kyallo, Victor Wanyama Scoop Social Media Awards: #Kenya
The 9,000-year-old history of booze, in photos
Ini adalah lokasi jebolnya tanggul lubang galian tambang batubara di Kalimantan Selatan beberapa hari lalu.
Most Australian residents born overseas are now from Asia, rather than Europe
Janchart takes its second handy bulker this year
Alec Baldwin will return to SNL as Trump
Merkel softens her opposition to gay marriage
Frenchwoman on trial for helping migrant lover smuggle into Britain
Save the Whale Campaigns Working, South African Summit Hears #SouthAfrica
Albanias Socialists take full control of parliament for first time since communisms end
Follow the Margaret Thatcher Conference on Security with CapX
The @WhiteHouse claims Bashar al-Assad planning Syrian chemical weapons
Police fired tear gas at LGBTQ supporters to enforce a ban on Pride parades in Istanbul
Another U.S. tech company shuns #Brexit fears with London office via @NateLanxon
Commission laments member states’ lack of ambition on energy saving laws
Why Nigerias Akinwunmi Adesina Won 2017 World Food Prize: #Nigeria
A little to the left. @roweafrs latest cartoon. For more: #auspol
Where the arts really make a difference might surprise you
Donald Trump, please kill Americans not more Syrians, signed- MAGA dipshits
Israel bombs Gaza after rocket fire
June 27, 1941 – Romania launched a pogrom in the city of Iaşi, resulting in the murder of at least 13,266 Jews.
No, the Fed didnt make a mistake by hiking interest rates via @BV
Huckabee hits Senate GOP healthcare bill: This isnt what Trump campaigned on
The ATM turns 50 - It all began with a newfangled bank machine in Enfield
British consumer confidence is now back at post-referendum levels
Last time short selling of #Lonmin was this high, it had an emergency rights issue #platinum #METL
UK royals to receive tax funding boost
Wall Street really hates giving any stock a ‘sell’ rating
Theres a safe and secure way for Chinese millennials to buy homes abroad
At platform 9-3/4, Harry Potter fans mark 20 years of magic
Italian Banking – Domino’s Just Started Falling - What is coming next?
@Renegade_Inc
@tracyalloway
Why Goldman Sachs pays such a high savings account rate
Fly Hi: Marine travel in the digital age #shipping
Peter Montalto: Rand to trade stronger, for now, but huge shocks lie in wait
Best and worst broadband speeds in UK revealed - but how does your area fare?
#Denmark Retail Sales month-on-month at 0.5%
Deutsche Bank growing more cautious on Gulf assets... Watch this space.
#Fintech in Hong Kong 2017 Startup and Ecosystem Report #vc
#Denmark Retail Sales year-on-year at 1.6%
Cyber Threat - Nigeria, 4 African Nations Among Worlds 10 Riskiest Countries: #Nigeria
13 Chinese sentenced to death for drug offences as thousands look on in public trial
Trump officially nominates new FBI director
Korean ports to offer alternative maritime power #shipping
GeoSea secures offshore wind installation work - Splash 247
How Singapore makes biodiversity an important part of urban life
Rowan lays off another 50 workers due to drillship cancellation
GeoSea secures offshore wind installation work
RT @shipping_latest: VLCC ordering scales heights not seen since 2008 #shipping
Chinas growth looks like it may already have hit its peak for 2017
EU to charge PPC with abusing position
It’s no coincidence
Ecuadors President grants pardon to 4 indigenous activists.
A storm chaser talks about the most dangerous storms of her career
Boxship master lays the blame for deadly collision on USS Fitzgerald officers #shipping
JAXPORT harbour-deepening project approved #shipping
Were creating a Facebook group to talk about American politics and we need your help
@thefreakywave reacts to news that the lifespan of ships is set to get younger #shippingnews
White House: Assad regime preparing for another chemical attack in #Syria -
Ugandan Scholar Seeking Kenyan Lover Boy to Marry Her: #Uganda
Lula leads Brazil presidential poll ahead of court sentence
MMA vs tai chi group brawl stopped by police in Shanghai
Blue Apron is among the IPOs estimated to bring in an aggregate $1.1 billion this week
Liquidation of Italian banks shows limits of banking resolution rules
This 3D-knit chair is made from a single piece of technical fabric
Key GOP senator: I dont have enough information to vote for ObamaCare repeal
Spacex had two successful launches in one weekend and has new titanium fins able to handle…
Cold, hard cash remains king in the digital age for one simple reason
Kyiv police confirms: driver is dead via @NPU_GOV_UA
How Italy’s bank rescue rewards investors’ political bets
Drones arent missiles, so dont regulate them like they are:
JAXPORT harbour-deepening project approved
Korean ports to offer alternative maritime power
You can try your best, but China’s latest logistics IPO is hard to unpack says @mak_robyn
How Kenyans Reacted to News of Tanzania Naming Street After Victor Wanyama: #Kenya
Five star Capitec rated by Lafferty as best bank in the world - again - @CapitecBankSA
Startup teaching kids how to handle money also guides parents to support them
How the insurance industry will decide how you will behave in future - or else!
Iraqi army says ISIL will fall in Mosul in a few days
An illustration of how Democratic partisans smear journalists and deny verifiable reality
Will Rodrigo Duterte heed the message inherent in #Marawi’s Islamist uprising?
Progress to stable laser propelled sails
1 killed, 2 wounded as car exploded in Kyiv this morning
These French bees have a serious case of the blues
@ZSchneeweiss @FerdiGiugliano @BV
In 1997 Canadian foreign min, partying in Hong Kong post handover: everyone seems freer to express themselves


Dan Crawford
Crises and Coordination
2 months ago




by Joseph Joyce

Crises and Coordination

Policy coordination often receives the same type of response as St. Augustine gave chastity: “Lord, grant me chastity and continence, but not yet.” A new volume from the IMF, edited by Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, includes the papers from a 2015 symposium devoted to this subject. Policymakers in an open economy who take each other’s actions into account should be able to reach higher levels of welfare than they would working in isolation.  But actually engaging in coordination turns out to be harder–and less common– than many may think.

Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government uses game theory to illustrate the circumstances that hamper coordination. One factor may be a fundamental divergence in how different policymakers view a situation. Many analysts on this side of the Atlantic, for example, use the “locomotive game” to show that Germany should engage in expansionary fiscal policies that would raise output for all nations. But (most) German policymakers have different views of the external impact of deficit spending. In the case of the Eurozone, a deficit in one country increases the probability that it will need a bailout by the other members of the monetary union. Only rules such as those of the Stability and Growth Pact that limit deficit expenditures can eliminate the moral hazard that would otherwise lead to widespread defaults.

Charles Engel of the University of Wisconsin (working paper here) also examines the recent literature on central bank coordination. He points out that the identifying the source of shocks is necessary to assess the benefits of cooperation to address them, and suggests that financial sector shocks may be most relevant for modeling open-economy coordination. But widespread cooperation could undercut the ability of a central bank to credibly commit to a single target, such as an inflation target.

Policymakers in emerging markets who must deal with the consequences of policies in advanced economies have been particularly mindful of their spillover effects. Raghuram Rajan, for example, who is back at the University of Chicago after serving as head of India’s central bank, has urged the Federal Reserve and other central banks to take into account the impact that their policies have on other nations, particularly when unwinding their Quantitative Easing asset purchases. He pointed out: “Recipient countries are not being irrational when they protest both the initiation of unconventional policy as well as an exit whose pace is driven solely by conditions in the source country.”

If international cooperation is viewed as a bargaining game, what incentives do the advanced economies have for cooperative behavior in light of the asymmetries among nations? Engel points out that in such circumstances, “…the emerging markets may believe that they have too little say in this implicit agreement, which is to say that they may perceives themselves as having too little weight in the bargaining game.” Conversely, central banks in the upper-income countries may in ordinary circumstances see little need to extend the scope of their decision-making outside their borders.

This attitude changes, however, when a crisis occurs, as Frederic Mishkin of Columbia shows in his examination of the response of central bankers to the global financial crisis. The Federal Reserve established swap lines to provide dollars to foreign central banks in countries where domestic banks faced a withdrawal of the funding they had used to acquire dollar-denominated assets. In addition, six central banks—the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank—announced a coordinated reduction of their policy rates. Coordination becomes quite relevant in a world of sudden stops and capital flight.

The need for such activities could increase if there is a global financial cycle, as Hélène Rey of the London Business School has stated. She presents evidence of the impact of global volatility, as measured by VIX, on international asset prices and capital flows. An important determinant of such volatility is monetary policy in the center countries. Rey agrees with Rajan that: “Central bankers of systemically important countries should pay more attention to their collective policy stance and its implications for the rest of the world.”

Perhaps a better motivation for the need for joint action comes from Charles Kindleberger’s list of the responsibilities that a hegemonic power such as Great Britain played in the period before World War I. These included acting as a lender of last resort during a financial crisis; indeed, it was the lack of such an international lender in the 1930s that Kindleberger believed was an important contributory factor to the Great Depression. Since the end of World War II the U.S. has vacillated in this role while the international monetary system has moved from crisis to crisis. Meanwhile, offshore credits denominated in dollars have grown in size, and could conceivably constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to undertake purely domestic measures.

A policy of “America First” that means “America Only First and Last” ignores the fragility of the international financial system. Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, no one doubts the merits of coordination when there is a disruption of global markets. But suffering another crisis would be an expensive reminder that the best time to minimize systemic risk is before a crisis erupts.