The gold price was weaker by a few dollars until shortly after 1 p.m. China Standard Time on their Tuesday afternoon. It began to edge quietly higher at that point until 11 a.m. BST in London. It didn’t do much from that point until the equity markets opened in New York at 9:30 a.m. EDT. The price ran into a bit of an air pocket at that point — and the low tick of the day came at 10:00 a.m. precisely. It rallied in somewhat decent fashion from there until around 1 p.m. EDT — and was sold off a dollar or so in the thinly-traded after-hours market.
The low and high ticks were recorded by the CME Group as $1,280.60 and $1,294.40 in the June contract.
Brad Robertson wasn’t around yesterday, so I thought I’d stick in the New York Spot Gold [Bid] chart so you can see precise timing of Tuesday’s low tick at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Nothing free market about that. The New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart looks about the same as well.
The silver price traded a few pennies, to a nickel lower in Far East and London trading on their Tuesday’s. The silver price got the JPMorgan et al treatment going into the London p.m. gold fix, with the low tick there coming at the same time as gold’s. Its weak rally from there ran into some headwinds within an hour, but had regained about twenty cents or so of its losses by 2 p.m. EDT in the thinly-traded after hours market. And, like gold, was sold off a hair into the 5 p.m. close.
The high and low ticks in silver were reported as $18.435 and $18.065 in the May contract.
Silver closed in New York yesterday at $18.25 spot, down 13 cents on the day. Net volume was huge, as the 200-day moving average was penetrated to the downside during that engineered price decline. It was recorded as 72,000 contracts — and roll-over/switch volume out of May was equally enormous as well.
Platinum traded in a very similar fashion to silver, including a smallish price decline at the fix. Its tiny recovery from there wasn’t allowed to get far — and the price headed lower for the rest of the day. Platinum was closed on its low tick…$973 spot…down 9 bucks on the day.
The palladium price was sold down about five dollars in the first two hours and a bit after New York opened at 6:00 p.m. EDT on Monday evening, but began to inch higher from there. It’s $791 spot high tick came shortly before 1 p.m. in Zurich — and it sold off a bit from there into the p.m. gold fix. ‘Da boyz’ did the dirty at that point — and palladium’s $770 spot low tick came shortly before 1 p.m. EDT. It recovered a bit from that point, but was sold a bit lower after the COMEX close, finishing the Tuesday session at $771 spot — and down 16 dollars from Monday.
The dollar index closed very late on Monday afternoon in New York at 100.30 — and rallied to its 100.40 high in early morning trading in the Far East — and then began to crawl quietly lower until 11:30 a.m. BST in London when British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap British election for June 8. The dollar index headed lower with a vengeance at that point — and the 99.47 low tick was set a minutes after 3 p.m. EDT in New York. It didn’t do a lot after that, closing at 99.51…which was down 79 basis points on the day. The precipitous decline at the 1:30 p.m. EDT COMEX close, which was saved by the usual ‘gentle hands’, is noteworthy as well.
There was certainly no sign of the dollar index carnage in the precious metal prices yesterday while all this was going on, as the powers-that-be held them in an iron grip in the COMEX futures market.
The gold stocks opened unchanged, but quickly fell to their lows of the day, which came a few minutes before the 10 a.m. EDT London p.m. gold fix. They rallied back to a hair above unchanged at the 11 a.m. EDT London close — and then sold off a hair, trading just below unchanged for the rest of the Tuesday session, despite the fact that gold rallied well back into positive territory. The HUI closed lower by 0.19 percent.
The silver equities opened down about a percent — and their respective low ticks came at the same time as the gold shares. They then had a big up/down move between that point — and 12:45 p.m. in New York. Then they chopped quietly higher into the close from there, but finished lower on the day as well. Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index closed down 0.37 percent. Click to enlarge if necessary.
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 8 gold and 86 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the COMEX-approved depositories on Thursday. In gold, International F.C. Stone issued 7 contracts — and JP Morgan stopped 5 contracts for its client account. In silver, the sole short/issuer was ABN Amro. The three largest long/stoppers were Scotiabank, ADM and Citigroup with 42, 19 and 14 contracts respectively. The link to yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
The CME Preliminary Report for the Tuesday trading session showed that gold open interest in April fell by 166 contracts, leaving 930 still around, minus the 8 mentioned just above. Monday’s Daily Delivery Report showed that 26 gold contracts were actually posted for delivery today, so that means that 166-26=140 gold contracts disappeared from April without either making or taking delivery. Silver o.i. in April remained unchanged at 86 contracts, minus the 86 contracts mentioned in the paragraph above. There were no silver contracts posted for delivery today. That means that, barring any changes or late-month additions, the April silver delivery month will be done by the close of business on Thursday.
There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday, but an authorized participant removed 946,700 troy ounces of silver from SLV — and regardless of the reason, plain vanilla liquidation or Ted’s “conversion of shares” scenario, it’s a safe bet that JP Morgan owns it now.
The folks over at Switzerland’s Zürcher Kantonalbank updated their website with the goings-on inside their gold and silver ETFs as of the close of business on Friday, April 14 — and here is what they had to report. They added a smallish 1,221 troy ounces of gold, plus an almost equally tiny 5,980 troy ounces to their silver ETF.
It was another day with no sales report from the U.S. Mint.
There were dribs and drabs of gold movement over at the COMEX-approved gold depositories on the U.S. east coast on Monday. There was 1,799 troy ounces received…all of that at Brink’s, Inc. There was 96 troy ounces shipped out of Delaware — plus 321.500 troy ounces/10 kilobars [U.K./U.S. kilobar weight] shipped out of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc. I shan’t bother linking this activity.
The silver gong show continued on Monday, as 1,805,691 troy ounces were received — and 101,118 troy ounces shipped out. Two container loads…1,207,357 troy ounces…went into JP Morgan — and 1 container…597,304 troy ounces…was deposited at Brink’s, Inc. The ‘out’ activity was divided up unequally between four different depositories, so I won’t bother breaking them out separately. If you wish to see for yourself, the link to all this action is here.
JP Morgan’s COMEX silver stash is now up to 101.4 million troy ounces.
It was another huge day over at the COMEX-approved gold kilobar depositories in Hong Kong on their Monday, as a monstrous 15,550 kilobars were received — and another 4,339 kilobars were shipped out. As per usual, all of this action was at Brink’s, Inc. — and the link to that, in troy ounces, is here.
Here’s a chart that Nick Laird passed around early yesterday evening Denver time — and it showed the gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange during March. For the the month, there was 192.25 tonnes taken out, which agreed exactly with the number that Lawrie Williams used in his story in Tuesday’s column. Click to enlarge.
I have a fair number of stories for you today — and the final edit, as always, is yours.
Boeing Co. plans to lay off hundreds of engineers in Washington state and other locations — and may eliminate more jobs later this year as the planemaker contends with slowing aircraft sales.
The manufacturer plans to hand out pink slips on Friday, the same day that 305 engineers and technical workers will leave voluntarily under an earlier buyout offer. Boeing has pared 1,332 of the jobs from its Seattle-area manufacturing center since the start of 2016, according to SPEEA, the union representing the workers.
Boeing may make additional engineering cuts depending on “our business environment and the amount of voluntary attrition,” John Hamilton, vice president of engineering for the commercial airplanes unit, said in a letter to employees Monday. The dismissals are needed to “meet our operating plan and additional challenges in the marketplace.”
The Chicago-based company, which emerged as the face of U.S. manufacturing under President Donald Trump, has been winnowing employment for more than a year as a record jetliner sales spree fades. Boeing trimmed the Washington workforce by 9 percent to 70,640 employees over the past year. The company’s total headcount has shrunk 7.6 percent to 146,962 since March 2016.
This news story showed up on the Bloomberg website at 10:29 a.m. Denver time on Monday morning — and was updated about five hours later. I found it in yesterday’s edition of the King Report — and another link to it is here.
Last quarter, IBM almost fooled the market when it “beat” but only thanks to using the lowest effective tax rate in recent history (excluding one charge-fulled quarter when the rate was negative).
Well, fast forward one quarter when IBM has done it again, if only on a GAAP basis.
While IBM is truly a wizard when it comes to fudging the bottom line, there was nothing it could do about the top line, and it was here that IBM’s troubles emerged, because not only did IBM not beat modest estimates of $18.4 billion, printing $18.2 billion, the lowest since Q1 2002…but this was also the 20th consecutive quarter of declining revenues for the company which lately can’t seem to get any traction on the top line.
IBM ended the first quarter of 2017 with $10.7 billion of cash on hand. Debt, including Global Financing debt of $28.5 billion, totaled $42.8 billion, up from $42.2 billion at the end of 2016.
The stock, predictably, tumbles again, down nearly 4% after hours and round-tripping the entire past quarter’s gains.
This news item showed up on the Zero Hedge website about thirty minutes after the markets closed in New York on Tuesday afternoon — and another link to it is here.
Last quarter investors forgot the negative cash-flow, forgot the soaring cost of content, forgot the rampant competition, and forgot fact that Netflix slashed its domestic subscriber growth expectations, and just bought-the-f##king-record-high because international subscriber growth soared. This quarter, however, they may be less gullible because that surge in international subscribers not only did not happen, but missed by a whopping 370K subs, missing both the street forecast of 3.9 million and the company’s own guidance of 3.7 million. Adding to the pain, domestic subscribers of 1.42 million also missed consensus of 1.59 million and the company’s forecast of 1.5 million.
Then, unlike last quarter, NFLX’s outlook was far less euphoric, and the company now sees Q2 EPS of 15c, 8c below consensus. Revenue was also fractionally below expectations with the company expecting sasles of 2.755BN in Q2, below the 2.76BN est.
The only silver lining in the report: Q2 subscriber additions, both domestic and international, are expected to once again come above consensus estimates.
However, forget the potential growth slowdown, or the massive cash burn, or the competition, or pretty much anything else: by far the scariest thing in the letter to shareholders was the following:
Just ahead of the release of our third film from Adam Sandler, Sandy Wexler , we announced the renewal of our deal with Sandler to premiere an additional four films exclusively on Netflix around the world. We continue to be excited by our Sandler relationship and our members continue to be thrilled with his films. Since the launch of The Ridiculous 6, Netflix members have spent more than half a billion hours enjoying the films of Adam Sandler.
For those wondering where America’s once legendary productivity has gone, the answer is in the bolded sentence above.
This Zero Hedge story was posted on their Internet site at 4:27 p.m. EDT on Monday afternoon — and it’s the second story in a row that I ‘borrowed’ from yesterday’s edition of the King Report. Another link to it is here.
The S&P 500 fell for the fourth time in five sessions on Tuesday, weighed down by a drop in Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson following their quarterly results, while geopolitical tensions added to investor caution.
Goldman Sachs lost 4.7 percent to $215.59, after hitting its lowest intraday level since Nov. 29. The bank posted earnings that missed expectations as trading revenue dropped.
Goldman shares suffered their biggest daily percentage drop since June 24, a day after Britain voted to leave the European Union.
Johnson & Johnson slumped 3.1 percent for its worst day in 14 months after quarterly revenue fell short of analysts’ expectations.
“The Goldman numbers today were disappointing to the market, in what hasn’t been a bad group of numbers for most of the banks,” said Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.
This Reuters story, filed from New York, was posted on their website at 6:49 p.m. EDT yesterday evening — and I found it in today’s edition of the King Report. Another link to it is here.
U.S. Industrial Production peaked in November 2014 and remains down almost 2% from those record highs (despite surging stocks).
This has never happened without the U.S. economy being in recession in history.
While Industrial production headlines met expectations, factory output for March plunged 0.4% – the biggest drop since Feb 2015.
Still who needs ‘production’ when we have Snapchat and Netflix!??
This brief 3-chart news item appeared on the Zero Hedge website at 9:22 a.m. EDT on Tuesday morning — and another link to it is here.
With the U.S. home ownership rate near a half-century low, Zillow asked renters why they’re not buying.
The nearly unanimous answer: We can’t save up a down payment.
Nationally, 67.9 percent of renters say the down payment is a barrier to buying, followed by qualifying for a mortgage (cited by 53.2 percent of renters) and debt (50 percent). (Renters could choose more than one obstacle to blame.)
In South Florida, the down payment was cited by 45.7 percent of renters, qualifying for a mortgage was mentioned by 54.6 percent and debt was named by 45.4 percent.
“With home values close to record highs, it’s no surprise renters are concerned about coming up with enough money to buy a home,” said Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell. “Rising rents are also a factor — it’s extremely difficult to save when you’re paying record-high rents.”
This story appeared on the mypalmbeach.post.com Internet site last Wednesday — and it comes to us courtesy of Swedish reader Patrik Ekdahl. Another link to it is here.
The average sales price of a home in Canada reached $548,517 in March, up 8.2 per cent in a year.
Most of that strength came from Greater Toronto and southern Ontario, where prices soared in the 30-per-cent range in the past year.
It didn’t come from Vancouver, where the average selling price is down 9.3 per cent from a year ago, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association. Sales volumes dropped more than 30 per cent in the city from a year ago, when sales there were already softening.
The hottest market, not surprisingly, was in southern Ontario. Like many places surrounding Toronto, the Niagara region is seeing booming house prices as desperate Torontonians move farther afield in search of an affordable home.
This mostly pictorial news story showed up on the huffingtonpost.ca Internet site at 12:04 p.m. on Tuesday morning EDT — and I thank Roy Stephens for finding it for us. Another link to it is here. There was another real estate story from Canada yesterday headlined “Little doubt foreign buyers are pumping up Victoria’s housing market, says BMO chief economist” — and that comes from Roy as well.
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has announced plans to call a snap general election on 8 June.
She said Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership following the E.U. referendum.
Explaining the decision, Mrs May said: “The country is coming together but Westminster is not.”
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said his party wanted the election, calling it a chance to get a government that puts “the majority first“.
The prime minister will refuse to take part in televised leader debates ahead of the vote, Number 10 sources said.
This story, which Patrik Ekdahl sent me very early on Tuesday morning EDT, has been updated a couple of times as the day has progressed. It was posted on the bbc.com Internet site — and another link to it is here.
As Russia’s economy continues to put on growth, and as annualised inflation in Russia falls to a post-Soviet low of 4.2% at the start of this month, the Russian government’s handling of the Russian economy has come in for high praise from IMF chief Christine Lagarde.
Her comments about the skill with which the Russian government has handled the dual problems of the 2014 oil price crash and the sanctions could scarcely be more fulsome:
“We see the Russian economy growing after those few years of difficult times when the price of oil went very suddenly, from almost sometimes I think more than $100 per barrel, to a low, $27/$28 per barrel, the response by the Russian economy was very comprehensive. They took the right fiscal measures. They kept inflation under control. They adopted a very good monetary policy, which included the floating of the currency, making sure that the financial sector was stable.”
Indeed Russia’s handling of the economic storms which assailed it in 2014 could serve as a text-book case study of how a modern economy should handle such storms. Not only have the Russian government’s actions (as Lagarde says) been comprehensively vindicated by events, but they have confounded Western predictions of what would happen to Russia’s economy, nearly all of which predicted disaster.
There is still a widespread reluctance in the West to acknowledge this. Western commentators continue to talk of the Russian economy as if it was still in crisis or recession, when it is actually growing, and continue to point to the low rate of growth the economy is achieving at this early point in its recovery, when interest rates are still high, and when the emphasis is still less on growth than on inflation reduction.
This very worthwhile commentary by Alex Mercouris, showed up on theduran.com Internet site on Monday sometime — and it’s another offering from Roy Stephens. Another link to it is here.
The sovereign, internationally recognized state of Syria has strongly denounced the deadly Takfiri bomb attack targeting buses carrying people from two Shia-majority villages in the northwestern province of Idlib.
The government of Syria called on the United Nations to hold responsible the countries that fund terrorists and provide them with weapons and ammunition. Those nations were identified by the Syrian Foreign Ministry as Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, France, the U.K. and the United States.
At least 126 people, including 68 children, were killed and dozens of others sustained injuries on bus attack which happened this last Saturday.
Little media attention has been given to the horrific attack which saw a bomber blow up an explosive-laden car, ripping through multiple buses carrying evacuees from Kefraya and Foua villages in Idlib, as they were waiting in al-Rashidin district to enter the city of Aleppo.
This story showed up on theduran.com Internet site early Tuesday morning EDT — and it’s another contribution from Roy Stephens. Another link to it is here.
“If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.”
So thundered President Donald Trump last week. Unfortunately, neither China nor North Korea appeared intimidated by this presidential bombast or Trump’s Tweets.
What would ‘we will’ actually entail? This clear threat makes us think seriously about what a second Korean War would be like. Memory of the bloody, indecisive first Koran War, 1950-53, which killed close to 3 million people, has faded. Few Americans have any idea how ferocious a conventional second Korean War could be. They are used to seeing Uncle Sam beat up small, nearly defenseless nations like Iraq, Libya or Syria that dare defy the Pax Americana.
The U.S. could literally blow North Korea off the map using tactical nuclear weapons based in Japan, South Korea and at sea with the 7th Fleet. Or delivered by B-52 and B-1 bombers and cruise missiles. But this would cause clouds of lethal radiation and radioactive dust to blanket Japan, South Korea and heavily industrialized northeast China, including the capital, Beijing.
China would be expected to threaten retaliation against the United States, Japan and South Korea to deter a nuclear war in next door Korea. At the same time, if heavily attacked, a fight-to-the-end North Korea may fire off a number of nuclear-armed medium-range missiles at Tokyo, Osaka, Okinawa and South Korea. These missiles are hidden in caves in the mountains on wheeled transporters and hard to identify and knock out.
This opinion piece/commentary showed up on the unz.com Internet site on Saturday — and I thank Larry Galearis for pointing it out — and another link to it is here.
If the International Monetary Fund does nothing else at its meeting that starts Thursday in Washington, it would be nice to see it — or someone — answer the Ron Paul question: Why do its articles of agreement actually prohibit members from linking their currencies to gold?
To those who didn’t know the IMF prohibits member countries from linking their currencies to the classic measure of monetary value, no need to feel abashed. One of the savviest envoys America ever sent to the IMF just told us that he himself was nonplussed to discover that fact.
It cries out for an explanation in the wake of the election of a president who, in Donald Trump, campaigned on the notion that bringing back the gold standard would be “wonderful.” Particularly because Congress is wrestling with the question of monetary reform.
Ron Paul first asked the IMF gold question in 2008, in the form of an open letter to the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Why did they “acquiesce” in the IMF’s “misguided” policy of prohibiting its members from linking their currencies to gold?
This editorial showed up on The New York Sun‘s website on Tuesday — and I found it embedded in a GATA dispatch yesterday. Another link to it is here.
Sberbank is looking to finance the direct import of gold to India, Aleksei Kechko, Managing Director of the Russian’s bank’s Indian subsidiary Sberin, told the Free Press Journal in an interview on April 13.
“We think we could easily import gold worth $1.5 billion into India each year, since India is a very large importer of gold,” Kechko told the paper. “Russia is a big producer of gold (it has one of the largest gold reserves in the world). India imports this gold from other countries which in turn source it from other mines which in turn pushes up the cost on account of compliances and margins.”
Kechko told that paper that direct gold trade between India and Russia would be immensely beneficial to both countries. “We hope to sign the transaction by September or October this year,” he said. “We are also exploring the possibility of entering the gold loans sector as well.”
India is the world’s second largest importer of gold. The country imported $35 billion worth of gold in 2015. However India’s imports of the precious metal fell in 2016.
This news item showed up on the in.rbth.com Internet site on Thursday — and I thank Larry Galearis for sending it our way. Another link to it is here.
What effect could U.S. military action have on gold, silver and crypto-currency values? Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert recently interviewed Mike Maloney for their podcast on a recent trip to New York city.
This 10:43 minute youtube.com video was posted on their Internet site on Tuesday.
I discovered that there are only two kinds of porcupines…one from the Old World – Europe, western and southern Asia, and Africa. They are large, terrestrial — and strictly nocturnal. The New World porcupines are indigenous to North America and northern South America. They live in wooded areas and can climb trees, where some species spend their entire lives. They are less strictly nocturnal than their Old World relatives, and generally smaller. Here’s one photo of each — and I’ve been fortunate enough in my lifetime to have seen both in the flesh in their natural environments. Click to enlarge.
I must admit that I was somewhat surprised that there was no price reaction in any of the precious metals as the dollar index headed south on the U.K. election news. I’d assumed in my comments on gold at the top of the column that the power-that-be were at the ready when the news broke, but even if they were, their interventions wouldn’t have been instantaneous…there was simply no reaction at all. It just seems to be more proof that the dollar index can’t be used as a guide for what the precious metal prices are doing. As I pointed a few days ago, John Hathaway’s dollar index chart showed the correlation between it and the gold price was only around 31 percent.
Of course the engineered sell-offs at the London p.m. gold fix came as no surprise — and even though JP Morgan et al took out silver’s 200-day moving average for a brief moment of time during that event, I doubt very much if we’re through to the downside if they wish to push the issue.
Here are the 6-month charts for all four precious metals, plus copper — and because gold closed the Tuesday session up on the day, we’re still in overbought territory on the RSI trace. Silver’s RSI trace has turned lower by a fairly significant amount. I also note that copper got smacked as well on Tuesday. The ‘click to enlarge‘ feature helps a bit with the first four charts.
And as I type this paragraph, the London open is less than ten minutes away — and I see that the gold price has been sold unevenly lower ever since trading began in New York at 6 p.m. EDT on Tuesday evening — and it’s currently down $4.80 an ounce, taking back most of Tuesday’s gains in the process. The price pattern was generally the same for silver — and it’s down 8 cents at the moment. Platinum rallied a few dollars right at the 6 p.m. open in New York yesterday evening — and has been trading mostly flat since — and is up 3 bucks. It’s pretty much the same thing for palladium — and it’s up a couple of dollars as the Zurich open approaches.
Net HFT gold volume is a bit over 35,000 contracts — and that number in silver is around 7,400 contracts, with not a lot of roll-over/switch volume out of May.
The dollar index began to rally quietly starting around 6:30 p.m. EDT in New York yesterday evening — and is up 14 basis points as London opens.
It’s pretty much a given that there was Managed Money long-selling during the COMEX trading session, especially in silver. Depending on how much of yesterday’s trading data ends up in this Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, we should have a better idea when that report is released. I know from talking with Ted on the phone yesterday, that he’ll be looking at that very thing. So will I.
Since yesterday at the close of COMEX trading was the cut-off for that report, I’d assume from just eye-balling the gold and silver charts posted above, that we’ll see further deterioration in gold — and probably some improvement in silver — although I certainly reserve the right to be wrong about silver.
Another thing that I was discussing with Ted was what portion of the 35,000 contract increase in the Managed Money long position during the last three weeks or so were of a technical fund vs. non-technical fund buying nature. Ted figures that the core non-technical long position [not price sensitive] is in the 78-80,000 contract range — and it will be interesting to see if we get back to that number once this engineered sell-off is complete…or will the non-technical funds actually have increased their long positions — and the base number is now much higher than the current 78-80,000 contract mark. Whoever these non-technical fund long are, they certainly aren’t going to be scared off by a price decline — and may even add to their positions as ‘da boyz’ continue to engineer prices lower from here. We just have to wait it out and see what each new COT Report reveals.
And as I post today’s column on the website at 4:03 a.m. EDT, I note that not much has happened during the first hour of trading in London. Gold is down about the same amount as it was an hour ago…$4.90 an ounce — and silver is still down 8 cents. Platinum is up a dollar — and palladium is still up 3.
Net HFT gold volume is pretty healthy at just over 41,000 contracts — and that number in silver is just under 8,100 contracts, which is only up about 600 contracts or so in the last hour.
The dollar index hasn’t done a lot — and is up 7 basis points.
After yesterday’s precious metal price and currency shenanigans, you’re guess is as good as mine as to what may or may happen during the rest of the Wednesday session. But, as is almost always the case, the real price activity will come during COMEX trading in New York.
That’s it for another day — and I’ll see you here tomorrow.
The post Silver Punched Below Its 200-Day Moving Average Briefly appeared first on Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest.