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Shaun Richards
UK Inflation continues its ascent in spite of the measurement “improvements”
11 days ago




Today we will find ourselves updated on the latest official data for UK inflation. Sadly we will see it move further above target and there have been two main drivers of this. Firstly it is the fact that the price of oil stopped falling. This will impact on April’s inflation data as the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil was around US $10 per barrel higher than in the same month last year. Here is the Office for National Statistics on the subject.

Oil rose further above $55 (44.22 pounds) a barrel, supported by another shutdown at Libya’s largest oilfield and heightened tension over Syria. Libya’s Sharara oilfield was shut after a group blocked a pipeline linking it to an oil terminal, a Libyan oil source said. The field had only just returned to production, after a week-long stoppage ending in early April. Brent crude LCOc1, the global benchmark, rose 48 cents to $55.72, not far from the one-month high of $56.08. U.S. crude CLc1 was up 37 cents at $52.61.

In addition the next factor then arrives which is the lower level of the UK Pound £ which spent much of last April in the mid US $1.40s compared to the mid US $1.20s this year. Actually later this April the UK Pound £ rose to the current level of around US $ 1.29 so the exact annual difference depends a fair bit on which day in the month is used  but the underlying issue is that the cost will have risen. For the price of crude oil there is a double whammy effect as the two changes combine. Also it impacts on domestic fuel costs although the two main rises in April ( SSE and E.ON ) were on the 26th and 28th of the month so are more likely to be in the May data.

The UK Budget will also give prices an upwards nudge.

The measures that will be implemented in the financial year ending 2017 are estimated to increase the CPIH 1-month rate by approximately 0.16 percentage points, the CPI 1-month rate by approximately 0.18 percentage points and the RPI 1-month rate by approximately 0.23 percentage points.

This compares to 0.04% last year for CPIH and 0.06% last year for RPI.

A Space Oddity

Remember the official campaign against the Retail Price Index measure of inflation saying it does not meet international best practice? It looks like someone has let their greed for higher rises to create a bit of amnesia on that subject.

The March 2017 Budget announced that from 1 April 2017 VED rates will increase in line with the RPI for cars, vans and motorcycles registered between 1 March 2001 and 1 April 2017.

A direct impact

The producer price or PPI inflation measure shows us the impact of the factors analysed above as we look at the impact on input prices.

Crude oil provided the largest contribution of 5.82 percentage points to the annual rate and on the month it provided a contribution of 0.32 percentage points.

The overall picture is as shown below.

The monthly rate of inflation for goods leaving the factory gate (output prices) was unchanged at 0.4% in April 2017, while input prices rose 0.1% following 2 months of no growth….The annual rate for factory gate price inflation was positive but unchanged at 3.6%, while the annual growth rate for input prices fell back to 16.6% from a peak of 19.9% in January 2017.

As you can see some of the input price effect is fading but output prices will continue to be affected and therefore will exert an upwards pull on the consumer inflation indices.

The headlines

These raised a wry smile and I will give you just one example which is from the Press Association which was repeated by many other media and news outlets.

#Breaking Rate of Consumer Price Index inflation rises to 2.7% in April, from 2.3% in March, the Office for National Statistics says

The wry smile was caused by the fact that the new official inflation series is now CPIH and as someone who has led a campaign against it then perhaps more people were listening than I realised. For newer readers the CPIH is where H= Housing Costs, and so far so good. But it all goes wrong when a number is calculated for what houses which are owner-occupied would be rented out for based on Imputed Rent methodology. So a theoretical construct or made up number is used as opposed to actual real world numbers such as mortgage rates and house prices. Oh and the RPI index was downgraded for not being a national statistic whereas CPIH was upgraded for being.

CPIH is not currently a National Statistic.

If we look at the numbers we see that there is another reason to raise a wry smile.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.6% in April 2017, up from 2.3% in March.

Conspiracy theorists will have noted that it has become the headline measure just in time to give a lower inflation reading than its predecessor! I tend to downplay such thoughts although the rush to make it the new headline measure at the end of last year does give some support to them. After all I was pointing out back then that I expected rents to struggle this year as opposed with what I considered hype from the real estate industry. This is now being borne out by the official data.

Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 1.8% in the 12 months to April 2017; this is down from 2.0% in March 2017.

So the housing market has arrived in the numbers just in time to lower them after all the years of ignoring it as it surged. Some perspective on this has been provided by the Resolution Foundation today.

Staying with rents the official data is catching up on what has been going on in London which as usual is in the van of any changes.

London private rental prices grew by 1.4% in the 12 months to April 2017, 0.4 percentage points below the Great Britain 12-month growth rate.

If we return to my theme which is that house prices give a much better guide to inflation than rents let me point out that they continue to send a different message. Yes the inflationary burst is fading (good) but compare the number with the one for rents.

Average house prices in the UK have increased by 4.1% in the year to March 2017 (down from 5.6% in the year to February 2017).

Comment

The drumbeat in today’s numbers is that UK inflation is on the rise as was expected on here and that it is not good news. Indeed the news is more disappointing if we look at our old inflation measure.

The all items RPI annual rate is 3.5%, up from 3.1% last month.

With wage and indeed economic growth around 2% per annum the difference  between our old and newer inflation measures becomes more material. It is of course something the Bank of England should be looking into but apart from putting their own pensions in instruments benefitting from the RPI they are shamefully silent on the matter. What we can see is that each “improvement” in consumer inflation methodology seems to result in a lower number whereas other prices surge. I have already looked at house prices but whilst some of it is growth we have to wonder if inflation is also at play in this asset price as well.

The FTSE 100’s recent record breaking run showed no sign of ending as the UK’s main share index hit another record intra-day high.

In morning trade,the index climbed to 42 points, or 0.5% to 7,495.68 – meaning it is up 5% this year.

Vodafone led the way, with the mobile giant’s shares rising 4.1% as investors ignored news of a hefty annual loss and focused on its upbeat outlook.