Pakistan hikes spending as Sharif eyes next year’s elections
Under state pressure, Venezuela TV limits live coverage of protests
Ariana Grande to hold concert in Manchester for bombing victims
In shake-up, Trump to set up war room to repel attacks over Russia probe
BT talking to pensioners about caps on benefits - Telegraph
A mind-boggling tax reform looms over Indias $2 trillion economy
The ex-Goldman star who traded through the 2011 earthquake has made an unusual move
New airport scanners could end bans on laptops and liquids
Brexit wont derail the euro areas revival and Britain has more to lose, ECB official says
Mr. President: Cooperation with Russian investigation is your best play
Egypt Blocks Access to Many News Websites
12 things you should always have in your carry-on ✈️ #TravelTips
25 celebrity relationships you totally forgot about
Prefabricated cabins designed as battery-charging stations for humans:
#Thailand: PM poses questions of #democracy to public, asks for feedback
Trump tries to patch things up with Comey in latest Simpsons short
This is how a former employee of Jared Kushners described him.
Conservative Professor at UCLA is Under Review #tcot
Grantee @Lisa_Palmer spoke at the @TheWilsonCenter about her new book, #HotHungryPlanet.
People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware”- Alan Kay.
Ariana Grande to hold concert in Manchester for bombing victims
Philippines: Price rises remain strong with inflation maintaining recent rate in May. #SMI
Kushners busted on Instagram for giant undisclosed art collection
Asias monetary guardians retain a high degree of unpredictability
Alex Tizon and growing up as a witness to violence
Trumps State Department quietly lifts restrictions on refugee admissions
#Trump Administration Moves to Slaughter Americas Wild Horses – Take #Action Now!
5 outdoor games you can build yourself
‘Game-changer’: MSNBC panelists explain magnitude of ‘devastating’ Kushner revelations
Top aide to former US president Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, dies
Family income is now the highest since 2002 @rickjnewman
The Federal Reserve Is Destroying America
Understanding The Feds Endgame Is Key To Protecting Your Wealth
Canadian teen allegedly behind notorious dark web hacking forum:
White House considering vetting Trump’s tweets: report
Ivy League Hunger Strikes Do Little to Change Reality #tcot
Political scientist, Carter adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski dies
Like monsters under the bed, climate change is worse in the dark.
Clinton mocks Trump on inauguration crowd size claims and alternative facts
Chinas developers are chasing a new profit play: $2,400 nose jobs
Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, dies at 89
This computer program can tell if your facial expressions are fake:
If Mexico’s ruling party can’t win here, it’s probably doomed
Is this the electric car thats going to kill Tesla?
Here is Copernicus, who put the Sun rather than the Earth at the center of the universe, doing monetary economics.
Its extraordinary for a court to call the president a liar like this.
The dealmaker who bet big on Philippine President Duterte is building an empire
Is this the electric car thats going to kill Tesla?
Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, dies at 89
A Fairbanks 12-year-old takes an early lead in the Homer halibut derby with a 104.4-pounder
Morning Joe host Mika Brzezinski announces fathers death at 89
Malaysian man sings 112 national anthems
Can a font be a whole brand? @YouTube thinks so
From Umbrellas to Basketballs, Sharing Economy Blooms #sharingeconomy #umbrellas
Where you can make the most money renting your stuff
Cai Qi appointed Beijing CPC chief, replacing Guo Jinlong
Replicable and Scalable Urban Park Management
Trump tries to patch things up with Comey in latest Simpsons short
Singapore strongly condemns bus attack on Coptic Christians in Egypt
Bush takes photo with Bono: Hes the real deal
Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski dies aged 89
Do you meet the 4 criteria that mean youre healthy? (Probably not.)
Heres your guide to Memorial Day ceremonies in Southcentral Alaska
JUST IN: Tim Kaines son charged with misdemeanor for Trump rally incident
What did The Manchurian Candidate mean in 1962, and what does it mean today?
Construction begins on worlds largest telescope in Chilean desert
Clogged roads but cheap gas await Memorial Day drivers
After decades of neglect, India build roads along China border
Two former Home Capital brokers sanctioned in first disclosed crackdown
Security tight for Wonder Woman movie premiere in Hollywood
Wall St. drifts before long weekend; consumer stocks up
Tension high among civilians as violence surges in Central African Republic
WATCH: GOP lawmakers urge Trump to stop using Twitter
How does a big tech company know if its energy is renewable? via @bv
#Hakuho gets boost toward 38th #sumo title
Africas untapped free trade potential
‘Hey Bill Nye, Could the Government Be Hiding Extraterrestrials From Us?’
Play the fact, not the speculation. - @stuartlowman
Looking for a sneak preview of Hell? Check out these scorching destinations
#Earthquake magnitude 4 - 186,6 km from #Salta - #Argentina
How to recycle your phone no matter where you live
Trumps bid to open U.S. monuments to development draws calls for protection
Egypt launches air strikes in Libya after 28 Christians killed by armed group linked to ISIL
The message of Trump’s budget: Get a job! @rickjnewman
Whiplash isn’t a presidential strategy—predictability is, write @jonfiner Joshua Geltzer
Zbigniew Brzezinski, ex-White House adviser and author of The Grand Chessboard, dies
50 Things That Made the Modern Economy: Tally Stick
Preet Bharara on Montana Republican: If he were an immigrant, hed face deportation
Sales Managers Report Global Manufacturing Sector Growth at a 22 Month High in May. #SMI
For two Alaska villages, walruses remain essential. As sea ice disappears, can it last?
EXCLUSIVE: Trump son-in-law had undisclosed contacts with Russian envoy - sources
Alabama governor signs law banning cities from removing Confederate monuments
Summer Of Love: Beatles album Sgt. Peppers turns 50
Iraqi border berm divides land and communities
Warp-speed activism: 13 protest posters that took minutes to design
The old US Customs area is now a bus stop.
Video: Alaska State Troopers dogs graduate from drug detection training
JUST IN: Jimmy Carters national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski dies at 89
Immense progress made in Manchester attack investigation
This photo is from Austin Powers and the Foreign Peril and every one in it is Mike Myers. Esp front row.
Kushner had undisclosed ties to Russian envoy
Finding Disneys next CEO is Bob Igers number one priority @nicoleusinclair
Sheriff David Clarke directed officers to hassle plane passenger who criticized him: report
$500 million opium farm found in North Carolina
This computer program can tell if your facial expressions are fake:
From @nytimes add-on story: Kushner and Flynn wanted Russia backchannel to discuss Syria strategy
Boehner: Almost everything Trump has done in office has been a complete disaster
Two further arrests in Manchester attack probe
NY Times rips Trump over embarrassing NATO speech
Out-of-Touch Conservatives? #tcot
Migrants who clung to boat rescued off Libya, seven bodies found - officials
Boehner: Trump has been complete disaster
UK police say theyve arrested some key players behind Manchester bombing
Trumps bid to open U.S. monuments to development draws calls for protection
After four months of increases, orders for durable goods decline by 0.7 percent
Tens of thousands visit Protestant congress in Berlin #dekt17
Scarborough on Trump-Macron handshake: He tore his arm off
Behind the black architectural resistance, from 1967 to 2017
The fund manager who avoids having meetings with investment bankers
Hollywood is running out of ’80s hits to reboot:
3 reasons #BigData analytics goes wrong @CIOonline #fintech #IoT #AI
JUST IN: Russian bank owners sue Buzzfeed for publishing unverified Trump/Russia dossier:
He played me for a fool: Kentucky Trump supporter laments he should have voted for Hillary
Rimsky Yuen, Justice Secretary of HK SAR speech on one country, two systems @asiahouseuk
Chinese judges US federal courts
Op-Ed: Raising the minimum wage is essential for working people. We know from experience.
Nest Learning Thermostat Review: Smart temperature control that sticks to your schedule
Did Admiral Mike Rogers tell the NSA that Trump colluded with the Russians?
Thrilled 2 speak at @Quarterhouse_UK w @DrLegumes for @BrainFestUK #Normal17 : were talking #goodmoodfood
US Senate Intelligence Committee requests Trump campaign documents
To soften charges of unfair trade, South Korean firms are accelerating investment in America
How can companies support veterans this Memorial Day? Hire them @robsmithonline
From killer to calligrapher, a Hong Kong artist’s dark journey
25 Amazing Dishes for Your Memorial Day Cookout #Vegan
Brazils judges are being called on to clean up a political mess... again
Electric cars are expected to be cheaper than gasoline-powered models within a decade
John F. Kennedys descendants look at his legacy a century after he was born
Trumps State Department quietly lifts restrictions on refugee admissions
Apple is working on a dedicated chip to power AI on devices
How to earn millions in Chinas app economy
A housing bubble is forming in Canada. Here’s what to do about it
How Trump could set tariffs in the name of national security
The sad saga of North Koreas ATMs, an alien concept in Pyongyangs shiny new airport
The White House will share information about lobbyist waivers
The White House will share information about lobbyist waivers
Three cocktails you can make at home, then take to the beach
White House considering vetting Donald Trump’s tweets 
The worlds 15-year-olds are clueless about money
Trump to maintain or even strengthen Obama-era sanctions against Russia, top adviser says
These are the top 10 highest-paid CEOs of 2016
$PEP in #bid to #acquire Vita Coco owner | @Reuters | #MnA
.@CassSunstein has scientific evidence that Trump is making xenophobia respectable
U.S. Senate intelligence panel requests Trump campaign documents - Washington Post
Boehner: Trump has been complete disaster
What Hillary Clinton said to the Wellesley class of 2017, @anna_m_diamond reports:
How to earn millions in Chinas app economy
Guys. You broke the Congressional Budget Office. Thank you!
Most applicants to the U.S. visa lottery are from Africa, the Middle East and Asia
Where immigrants get the job done (and where they cant crack the labor market)
This relatively minor change in China is surely a negative step for financial openness
Hows a big tech company to know if its energy is renewable?
China is building some of the worlds biggest packaged food companies
Millions of people are hoarding cash, cutting their spending and living frugally
Ben Stiller and wife Christine Taylor split after 17 years of marriage
Top Trump adviser breaks with Trump: Coal doesn’t even make that much sense anymore
Precio de la canasta petrolera #WTI y #Brent al 26/05/2017. #UCV #OPEC #Venezuela #OPEP
Millions of people are hoarding cash, cutting their spending and living frugally
Chipotle says hackers stole payment card info in data breach
PepsiCo in bid to acquire Vita Coco owner - sources
Trumps bid to sell more than half the U.S. emergency oil stockpile could hurt OPEC cuts
Many people around the world are unsuspecting that they have diabetes diabetes
Making Japan a little more halal-friendly
Your skinny jeans are killing the fashion industry
Heres how Putin went from being a poor kid in Leningrad to the symbol of Russian power
Tories challenge Gordon Brown to say whether federal UK plans mean referendum
Delighted to write about why I chose to become an ambassador for @YoungMindsUK
Heres how Putin went from being a poor kid in Leningrad to the symbol of Russian power
Chinese buying far-away homes in smaller cities are raising bubble risks
How Facebook can fight the hate
Inside the hidden cycles that rule markets, history... and everyday life
Goodbye, Denys (1922-2017)
Alonso looks to return to work with Indy 500 win
Steven Peikin expected to be named co-chief of SEC enforcement: source
Chinese group buys condom brand named after James Bond
Five takeaways from the Montana special election
The GOP valued tax cuts over health care. The results are obvious.
Indias highest grossing movie ever didnt come from Bollywood
Why the Chinese will pay for online content that Americans wont
$CSCO closes $125M #buyout of AI firm MindMeld | @SeekingAlpha | #MnA
Chipotle says it has removed malware after a breach hit its payment systems
Move over, IKEA: This ultra-portable furniture adapts to any apartment
WATCH: First promo released for Megyn Kellys new NBC show
Harvard Library Waived Overdue Fees to Avoid Stressing Students Out #tcot
The most inspiring words of advice for the Class of 2017
Do pain gels even work? We asked a pain researcher to look into it
At least 91 people killed in floods, landslides in Sri Lanka
Leveraging Big Data Analytics to Revitalize Brownfields
Digital gap between rural and nonrural Americans persists
Puerto Rico governor pushes statehood as vote looms despite no U.S. support
#Philippines security forces must uphold rights amid #MartialLaw – Commission
Perfect Weekend: A yen for hot treks and cool views in Oshima
Rice rolls (cantonese: cheung fun) before boarding at #HongKong airport. #travel #weekend #saturday
ICYMI: Trump Accuses NATO Members of Owing Massive Amounts of Money to U.S.
White House considering vetting Trump’s tweets: report
Chinese jets intercept U.S surveillance plane: U.S. officials
Coal versus Kiwis - New Zealand struggles to balance business and environment
Clinton mocks Trump on inauguration crowd size claims and alternative facts
10 traditional types of German jokes #MeettheGermans
Nobody agrees on how to ease Toronto’s problematic housing boom
Smoking hot Fanny Brice as a Ziegfeld Follies girl, c1910-1915.
10 more landless workers massacred in Brazil:
G7 leaders turn gaze to Africa, climate harmony elusive
What case should you get for your phone?
Comment: China’s hi-tech economy is taking shape, thanks to its entrepreneurs and innovators
Boost Your Data Wrangling with R #R #datascience
Whole Foods employees reveal 11 things they want you to know before shopping there
US plans first counter-ICBM test
We are now on Threema! How to send information and tips securely to ThinkProgress
How Amazons bookstore is a test for future non-book plans @readDanwrite
#Bitcoin Is Bigger Than Ever, And Heres Why That Matters #fintech @RyanWhitwam
Mr. President: Cooperation with Russian investigation is your best play
Show yourself some love :) ... Via @CollectiveEvol
Trump tries to patch things up with Comey in latest Simpsons short
.@ABC News Exclusive: Iraqi troops torture and execute civilians in secret videos.
Pirates of the Caribbean 5 is a sinking vessel, writes @OrrChris
Worlds largest telescope sets sights on 2024 unveiling
Net Brazilian equity futures open contracts Net shift from domestic to foreign accounts
Homeland Security chief: If you knew what I know, youd never leave the house
This prismatic sculpture reacts to your aura
Morgan Stanley has lowered its year-end 2018 WTI forecast to $55
JUST IN: Trumps State Department quietly lifts restrictions on refugee admissions
Liberal Media Continues to Publish Fake News about President Trump #tcot
Increased wildfire risk reduces carbon storage of forests Forest management / #ClimateChange
Your guide to the best #MemorialDay discounts on cars, clothes, and more
The Bhim Army: The new voice of Indias Dalits
Two Years of Buhari - How Did We Survive?: #Nigeria
The suspicious circumstances of Kushner’s secret meeting with a Kremlin-connected banker
Natural fungicide could restore French winemaking glory
#F1 Fans Asked For Ideas On How #IoT Can Improve #RacingTeams #fintech #BigData @SiliconGB
Egypt launches air strikes over Libya in response to Coptic Christian attack
Not a horror movie: melting permafrost could release sleeping pathogens. @majohnso
Cant wait for that cashless society. $CMG
WATCH: GOP lawmakers urge Trump to stop using Twitter
Also, this...
Tillerson breaks decades-old tradition of holding Ramadan event at State Dept: report
How Trumps housing budget targets extremely low-income families
Wolf-like golden jackal discovered in northern Germany
This chart is staggering.
White House agrees to detail ethics waivers
You are quite literally what you eat. #nutrition #healthyliving


Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of the blog Credit Writedowns and is a finance specialist at Global Macro Advisors. Previously, Edward was a strategy and finance executive at Deutsche Bank, Bain, and Yahoo. He started his career as a diplomat and speaks German, Dutch, Swedish, Spanish and French. Edward holds an MBA from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.


Markets actually aren’t freaking out about Trump
9 days ago




We are seeing decent selling in today’s US equity markets, with the VIX up some 25%. Bonds are rallying. And most people are pointing to the Trump scandals. But this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative – will not change the arc of the US economy and markets.

The markets. First, let’s remember that the market faces some headwinds based purely on the fundamentals. Large cap stocks are trading at relatively high multiples of earnings even on a forward-looking basis.

Source: Ed Yardeni

And the multiples for mid-cap and small cap stocks are even higher than large cap ones.

Source: Ed Yardeni

So, absent continued multiple expansion and financial engineering, US equities are dependent on increases in operating earnings in an economy growing fairly slowly in nominal terms. Where 5% growth was a floor during an expansion, it is now a ceiling.

Source: St. Louis Fed

At this point in the cycle, and with historically high operating margins unlikely to increase, nominal growth is going to be the major factor driving market top-line growth and earnings. Moreover, while large caps can translate increased earnings from abroad into US dollars, I am sceptical about the ability of US companies to get organic growth without the aid of leveraging and multiple expansion. That limits upside.

The political economy. Given that backdrop, the delay and potential failure of Trump’s legislative agenda is negative for markets. That’s what I was saying last week, with my post on Comey’s dismissal.  Moreover, given where we are in the business cycle, monetary policy is likely to offset a lot of fiscal stimulus that Trump had been planning, making the 3 to 4% growth he talks about close to impossible to achieve on a sustained basis. I think markets are starting to realize this and are adjusting to this baseline – but in the context of very positive near-term economic growth. That is supportive over the near-term but less so over the medium-term. That’s what I was saying this morning.

The politics. Now, Mike Pence is the Republican establishment figure in the Trump administration. For some time, I have been saying that Congressional Republicans would prefer him to Trump.

If Trump were bad enough, some Republicans would want him impeached to make way for Pence. Just a thought on how this could go down

— Edward Harrison (@edwardnh)

November 28, 2016

So now that the Trump Administration is under siege, Republicans are now starting to make calculations about how to play this. Republicans in Congress want to preserve their own reputations while ushering healthcare and tax bills through Congress. Up until now, the Republicans had been just buying time, thinking the Russia investigations would blow over.

The Comey memo – and the prospect of more Comey memos – has changed everything overnight. Now, Republicans are realizing this won’t blow over. And so they have to decide what to do and when to do it so that their Congressional majority remains intact in 2018.

My guess is they will slow walk this – asking for subpoenas and doing lip service to investigation as and when necessary – but no more. If Trump continues to blow up, eventually they will be forced to turn to Pence to make sure they retain the house and Senate in 2018.

Conclusion. I don’t think any of this is fatal for the economy or the markets. Arguably, from a market perspective, Mike Pence would be a more effective President regarding the legislative agenda. What’s more, if you look at past political events – the assassination of JFK or the impeachment of Bill Clinton for example, there was no negative market reaction. Indeed, markets rallied after JFK was killed. And we got the TMT bubble after the Clinton impeachment.

Bottom line: There are more shoes to drop here in DC. And it may produce temporary hiccups in the market. But this won’t matter that much to markets over the medium-term. What does matter is a rebounding economy buoyed by a resilient consumer and low joblessness fighting against a Fed hiking into a flattening yield curve and earnings market multiples that are high by historical standards. 

More About: