Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He operates the blog MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis and believes in the Austrian School of economics.
The wide divergence between models remains at one full percentage point.
GDPNow Forecast: 2.9 percent — June 16, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.9 percent on June 16, down from 3.2 percent on June 14. The forecast for second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.8 percent to 0.4 percent after this morning’s housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter growth declined from -0.23 percentage points to -0.34 percentage points after yesterday’s Import/Export Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nowcast Forecast: 2.9 percent — June 16, 2017
Divergence One Percentage Point
Both estimates are way too high.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock