Today is a day of little economic news (other than serial bond defaulter Argentina seeing strong demand for its new 100 year sovereign bond issue). So I decided to review the state of the US economy in terms of competing real-time Q2 forecasts from the New York Fed (Nowcast) and Hot ‘Lanta Fed (GDPNow).
Despite declining GDP growth forecasts, The Fed has raised its target rate TWICE in 2017 after another rate increase in December 2016. As of today, the NY Fed Nowcast is tracking Q2 GDP growth at 1.86% while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is tracking Q2 GDP growth at 2.9%.
To be sure, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is more volatile than the NY Fed Nowcast forecast.
At least the PCE core price index YoY is relatively constant in that it only exceeded The Fed’s inflation benchmark of 2% only briefly during the first half of 2012. Other than that, its has been Dudsville.