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Letter in the Times that shines a sharp light on Mays words and coats them in shame.
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Oil demand may exceed supply by up to 4 million bpd by 2019: Trafigura
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Your Burger and Fries May Be Coming With a Side Order of Depression:
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this has done me in for some reason
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Mike Shedlock

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He operates the blog MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis and believes in the Austrian School of economics.

BLS Reports Net Negative Inflation for 5 Months: Anyone Believe That?

2 months ago

Today the BLS reported the CPI was flat. The Econoday consensus was for a 0.1% rise.

Over the last five months, the CPI is -0.1%. Over the last four months, the CPI is -0.2%.

In what is one of the very weakest 4-month stretch in 60 years of records, core consumer prices could manage only a 0.1 percent increase in June. This is the third straight 0.1 percent showing for the core (ex food & energy) that was preceded by the very rare 0.1 percent decline in March. Total prices were unchanged in the month with food neutral and energy down 1.6 percent.

Housing, which is a central category, continues to moderate, also coming in at 0.1 percent following a 0.2 percent gain in May. Apparel is down for a fourth month in a row with transportation, reflecting falling vehicle prices, down for a second month. Medical care, which had been moderating, picked up with a 0.4 percent gain while prescription drugs which Janet Yellen has been citing for special weakness, bounced back with a 1.0 percent gain. However wireless telephone services, another area cited by Yellen for weakness, posted another sizable decline, down 0.8 percent in June.

Year-on-year, the core is steady at 1.7 percent with total prices, which fluctuate much more than the core, down 3 tenths to 1.6 percent. The Fed may be blaming this stretch of weakness on special factors, but that argument is losing force.

CPI June 2016 – June 2017

Percent Changes by Category

BLS Figures

  • All Items: Down -0.1% Net for last 5 months
  • Core CPI: Up net 0.2% over last 4 months
  • Fuel Oil: Down 5 consecutive months
  • Commodities excluding food and energy: Down 4 consecutive months
  • New Vehicles: Down 5 consecutive months
  • Used Vehicles: Down 6 consecutive months
  • Apparel: Down 4 consecutive months

Supposedly medical care services are up only 0.3% over the last four months. Medical care commodities are up a net 0.3% over the last five months.

Your results may vary.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock