According to the Atlanta Fed, the GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on September 15, down from 3.0 percent on September 8. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 2.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, after this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s report on industrial production and capacity utilization from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
The New York Fed’s Q3 forecast plunged to 1.34%.
The alleged culprit? Hurricane Harvey.
Between a lack of inflation and dwindling GDP growth, The Fed is going to be hard put to raise rates at the December meeting.