WTI/RBOB extended losses post-API data overnight, but DOE data sparked some algo chaos as a surprise crude build (+2.24mm vs -2.45mm exp) was offset by a bigger than expected gasoline draw (exactly opposite what API reported). In addition, US crude production jumped to a new all-time high - take that OPEC!

 

API

  • Crude -1.562mm (-2.45mm exp)
  • Cushing +812k
  • Gasoline +520k (-1.85mm exp)
  • Distilates-3.133mm

ADOEPI

  • Crude +2.24mm (-2.45mm exp)
  • Cushing +720k
  • Gasoline -3.31mm (-1.85mm exp)
  • Distilates -3.359mm

Last night's API data showed smaller crude draw and a surprise gasoline build, but DOE surprised with a big crude build and biugger gasoline draw (and a notable build in Cushing stocks)...

 

Production has normalized back at cycle highs as storm effects fade, surging to new cycle highs in the last week

 

And total US Crude output just hit a new record high...

 

The trend is not OPEC's friend...

 

WTI was back below $57 and RBOB below $1.80 ahead of the DOE data, sinking after last night's surprise gasoline build

“If the EIA data disappoints then it could take further steam off the market,” says Jan Edelmann, analyst at HSH Nordbank.