Let us begin today by looking at something to cheer the cockles of a central bankers heart. Firstly from Alliance News on Tuesday.
The FTSE 100 index closed up 1.93 points at 7,562.28 on Monday, building on its fresh all-time closing high set on Friday.
It has dipped away from that level a little since but never mind as the Bank of England is usually behind the times and no-one will notice it especially if a chart from 2008 showing it around 3800 then is used. What a triumph for the period of lower interest-rates and QE ( Quantitative Easing). Tuesday brought us this from the Halifax..
House prices rose by 0.3% between September and October, following a 0.8% increase in September. The average price of £225,826 is the highest on record and 2.8% higher than in January (£219,741).
So as you can see the ” wealth effects” should be pouring into the economy right now. Sadly unlike the Bank of Japan there are no equity and property holdings to claim a profit on but never mind. If you are a young researcher in Threadneedle Street the way to career advancement is to write about wealth effects boosting the economy especially if you avoid writing about how the major wealth effects are for the few rather than the many.
There has been some potential good news on this front as well. Yesterday the agents of the Bank of England reported this.
Recruitment difficulties had intensified and were above normal in a range of activities, alongside continued
modest employment growth. As a result, pay growth had edged up and was expected to be somewhat higher in
2018 than this year.
This of course brings them into line with the official Bank of England view from the past 5 years or so that wage growth is rising. Of course the possible catch is that the Bank is not only the witness but the judge and jury here as we mull what somewhat higher means? One group who have managed a solid wage rise are these. From the Evening Standard about Southern Rail.
Members of Aslef, the train drivers’ union backed the deal, which includes a 28.5 per cent pay rise over the next five years, by 731 votes to 193, a majority of 79 per cent.
Industrial action by train drivers leading to pay rises feels like something from the 70s and maybe 80s but long-suffering commuters from the south will be grateful if this puts an end to the problems. As to the pattern of wages growth going forwards we can only wait and see if what used to be called “relativity’s” re-emerge and it leads to wage claims and rises elsewhere. That sort of thing has been missing for some time and is a hint that the UK employment situation may not be as strong as the headline figures imply. Although Governor Carney thinks the opposite.
with unemployment at a 42 year low, more people in work than ever before. This isn’t a false read on
the unemployment rate,
Here we find that Governor Carney was very bullish for their immediate prospects after his Bank Rate rise.
It will have an impact on borrowers over time, it will have a more immediate positive impact on savers, in terms of deposit rates.
So that is the state of play in his Ivory Tower, meanwhile if we look at the real world the BBC reported this yesterday.
Seven days after the rise in base rates, just 17 out of 150 providers have passed on improved returns to their savers.
The Bank of England raised rates by 0.25% to 0.5% last Thursday, the first rise in a decade.
Many banks are still considering whether to pass on the benefits.
But even if their provider does choose to increase rates in full, some savers will still find themselves worse off than when rates were last at 0.5%.
As to the slower impact on borrowers.
By contrast, lenders have been quick to raise the cost of mortgages.
Most customers with tracker mortgages have seen an immediate rise of 0.25%.
So far 20 banks have announced increases to their Standard Variable Rate (SVR) mortgages, including Barclays, Halifax, Lloyds, Nationwide, Santander and TSB.
Poor old Mark perhaps he might like to play some PM Dawn to help relax.
Reality used to be a friend of mine
Reality used to be a friend of mine
Maybe “why?” is the question that’s on you mind
But reality used to be a friend of mine
This morning’s numbers brought some good news for the UK economy but mixed news for the Bank of England.
In September 2017, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.7% compared with August 2017……Total production output for September 2017 compared with September 2016 increased by 2.5%.
It might only be 14% of the economy these days but it has improved recently and this improvement has been driven by this.
Manufacturing provided the largest upward contribution, increasing by 0.7%, with 10 of the 13 sub-sectors rising. This is the fifth consecutive monthly rise in this sector and follows growth of 0.4% in August 2017. Machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified provided the largest upward contribution to the growth in manufacturing, rising by 3.2%, following 0.0% in August 2017.
Also North Sea Oil and Gas ended its maintenance period and of course as we go forwards ( these numbers are up to September) will be seeing higher oil prices. Also those who joke we might need to trade with space in future well…..
Within this sub-sector, air and spacecraft and related machinery rose by 10.2%.
Whilst there was better news from the monthly data for September alone the background picture continued on its usual not very merry way.
Between the three months to June 2017 and the three months to September 2017 (Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017), total trade (goods and services) exports decreased by 0.2% (£0.3 billion), while total trade imports increased by 1.6% (£2.6 billion). This resulted in a widening of the total trade (goods and services) deficit by £3.0 billion to £9.5 billion.
There are some ways in which this fits with the other data we have for example weaker oil exports go with the summer maintenance period and higher exports of vehicles with the manufacturing data. But it is odd that exports are falling with rising production and particularly manufacturing figures. Perhaps we will find over time that exports of services were higher than we thought at the time.
Trade in services exports have been revised up by £0.3 billion for both July and August 2017. This is due to survey data replacing earlier estimates.
I have been worried about the accuracy of these numbers for some time ( regular readers may recall when a large business was switched from services to construction a couple of years ago which did not inspire confidence). However such as they are the sector has plunged into a recession.
However, construction dropped for the second quarter running, driven by falls in commercial work and housing repairs……Activity in the construction sector continued to weaken in Quarter 3 2017, with total output falling by 0.9%……..consecutive quarterly declines in current estimates of total construction output have not been seen since Quarter 3 2012.
I asked online for thoughts as to why this might be and one group of replies suggested a combination of a lack of demand and uncertainty.Another suggested that the credit crunch wiped out some smaller house builders which have never really been replaced.
There is a lot to consider here. Let us start with some good news which is that the production sector has improved and it has been driven by manufacturing. That is not showing up yet in the trade figures on any grand scale but there is hope we will see that feed in as 2017 ends and moves into 2018. As to construction it is in a decline and recession and I wonder if Governor Carney will be awake at night thinking that the £10 billion he splashed around in the corporate bond market or the £60 billion giving Gilt holders an early Christmas present might have been better spent helping the real economy?. Should it be the case it is suffering from uncertainty and a lack of demand there may be a case for government spending here. The main flaw in that is of course we might get more expensive projects like HS2 and Hinkley Point.
However perspective is also needed because if we look at the credit crunch era construction has recovered well. If we use 2010 as our benchmark then in August it at 118.5 was even above services at 117.2 and way ahead of manufacturing at 106 and production at 101.7.
If I return to the title of this piece if only the Bank of England put the same effort into supporting UK manufacturing as it has into propping up the housing market. Of the £90.1 billion of the Term Funding Scheme the only way I see it helping manufacturing is via the car leasing/finance sector and of course that mostly helps overseas manufacturers.