The loonie just exploded by 100 pips following a barrage of Canadian eco data, including GDP and employment, both of which crushed expectations.

September GDP rose 0.2% ,/ vs exp. 0.1%, and up from -0.1% in August, which means Q3 annualized GDP will be 1.7%.

But it was the jobs data which was particularly noteworthy; in fact it was borderline "Australian" in how ridiculous the print was: the employment rate in November was 79.5k, up from 35.3k last month, and 8 times higher than the consensus estimate. Not only was this the highest print since 2012, it was also a 14 sigma beat!

Canada also reported a 5.9% November unemployment rate, far below the 6.2% consensus estimate; this translated into total employment +2.1% or 390K from a year earlier.

Some more labor market details:

  • Full-time employment rose 29.6K in Nov., change in Oct. 88.7K
  • Part-time employment rose 49.9K in Nov., last month change was -53.4K
  • Private employment rose 72.4K in Nov., last month change was 39.1K
  • Public employment rose 10.6K in Nov., last month change was -4.5K
  • Self-employment fell 3.5K in Nov., last month change was 0.8K
  • Goods employment rose 37.4K in Nov., last month change was 33.9K
  • Services employment rose 42.1K in Nov., last month change was 1.4K
  • Total number of hours worked are up 1% y/y in Nov., +2.7% y/y in prior month
  • Average hourly wages of permanent employees are up 2.7% y/y in Nov., +2.4% y/y in prior month

In response to this stellar data, the USDCAD has plunged 100 pips, trading below 1.2800. With the loonie underperforming the major in recent weeks, is today's data the basis for a major reversal?