This morning has brought us an update on what the UK establishment treat as a not only a bell weather but also a cornerstone of economic policy which is of course house prices. The Halifax which of course represents Lloyds Banking Group which is a big player in the mortgage market so what is happening?
On a monthly basis, prices also fell by 0.6% from November following a 0.3% increase in both October and November; this is the first fall since June 2017.
So the headline catcher is that house prices fell in December however these numbers are a pretty erratic series so let us look for some perspective.
House prices in the final quarter (October-December) were 1.3% higher than in the previous quarter (July-September), down from 2.3% recorded in October and November,
So we move from a recorded fall to an apparent slowing which is backed up by a comparison of the annual data.
Prices in the last three months of 2017 were 2.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier although the annual change in December was lower than in November (3.9%).
Another way of putting the apparent slowing is that at this time last year the annual rate of growth was 6.5% so there has been a decline which we expected. As it happens the annual decline is very similar to the 2.6% reported last week by the Nationwide Building Society so there is some confirmation there. However the pattern has been unpredictable as for example there was something of a rally in the autumn of 2017 in the Halifax data which was against the trend. For those who want to know an actual price or at least an average one here it is.
The average price of £225,021 at the end of the year is 2.4% higher than in January 2017 (£219,741).
The problem comes when we look at a comparison of such a number with what someone is likely to be earning. Such reports come with estimates themselves which in both cases ( Nationwide & Halifax) have pretty much returned to the pre credit crunch highs or something of the order of a ratio of 5.5. However if we look at the official average weekly earnings figures and (perhaps generously) multiply by 52 we see that the answer of £26,520 requires multiplying by around 8.5 times to get the average house price.
For all the discussion of change this has been quite stable as this suggests.
Monthly UK home sales exceed 100,000 for the eleventh month in succession. Sales have remained above 100,000 in all months of 2017. In November they reached 104,200, the highest monthly level since March 2016……… For the past
twelve months mortgage approvals have been in the narrow range of 64,900 to 69,500.
The main change is that fewer seem to want to sell.
Turning to supply, new instructions to sell continued to deteriorate at the headline level and has now
fallen for 22 consecutive months – the worst sequence for close to eight years
What does the Halifax think about 2018?
Overall, we expect annual house price growth nationally to stay low and in the range of 0-3% by the end of 2018. The main driver of this forecast is the continuing effects of the squeeze on spending power as inflation has outstripped wage growth and the uncertainty regarding the prospects for the UK economy next year.
The first issue is that even they do not expect much if any which is revealing although their reasoning seems odd. For example unless the commodity price rises I looked at on Friday continue UK inflation seems set to fade especially if the UK Pound £ remains around US $1.35. Also whilst economists continue to write about uncertainty the main population sees an economy growing consistently if not that fast. Some of course will have fears and part of that will be Brexit related but currently economists are projecting their own “monsters of the id” on everyone else.
This continues to provide what may turn out to be a clarion call. From The Times over the weekend.
Almost half of the homes on sale for between £1 million and £2 million in London have had their prices cut, with average reductions of £142,000, rising to nearly £900,000 in extreme cases.
Presumably not the £1 million homes seeing price cuts of nearly £900,000! It is not just a London thing as I note I may not be the only person who likes a slice or two of Christmas cake.
Across Britain one in three sellers reduced their asking price last year, the highest proportion since the double-dip recession of 2012. However, sellers with homes in the “marzipan layer” — those worth less than the super-prime stock of central London (the icing) but more than most of the rest of the country (the cake) — are making the biggest price cuts.
Some of the effect here has been the rise in Stamp Duty on higher-priced properties but I note that Henry Pryor is reporting a change in psychology.
But almost all the buyers are discretionary and feel there is no harm in waiting. With an uncertain Brexit around the corner, buyers feel they can sit tight or rent and still be no worse off because prices will be even lower next year.
A change in psychology may be enough in itself although real falls also usually have surveyors reducing valuations. Of course however there needs to be some perspective as some of the comments suggest.
Heck even my parents house is now only worth 98 times what they paid for it !
(Down from 100 times before the referendum) ( Anthony Morris)
So overpriced homes in London are now marginally less overpriced. I think we’ll survive this somehow. ( John B )
For those unaware this is on the edge of what is regarded as the City of London as well as being a big train and tube station. It also had a development described in the advertising like this.
The ad portrays a rich couple embarking on helicopter rides, being serviced by an astute butler and sight-seeing the capital in a Bentley. The couple also admire a sculpture of the building they have just acquired a penthouse suite in. ( h/t @econhedge and The Drum)
How is that going? From Bloomberg.
An investor who agreed to purchase an apartment at the ritzy One Blackfriars project on the banks of the River Thames is offering the two-bedroom home on the 20th floor for 1.8 million pounds ($2.44 million), more than 22 percent less than they agreed to pay for it in 2013.
Also Bloomberg has missed the currency angle as if the investor is from Asia there is likely to be a currency related loss to add to this.
Actually the main trend in the UK housing market has been something of a realignment of house price growth with both wage growth and economic growth. That is good although things not getting worse is different from things getting better. As any sustained surge in wage growth has escaped us in the credit crunch era as we mull it rumbling on at circa 2% per annum it means that more affordable homes requires lower house prices which of course is the opposite of official policy.
As for London it is being affected by international trends where capital cities are now seeing house price falls rather than rises. There will still be overseas buyers but fewer of them and thus some air seems certain to come out of the bubble. There is still an extraordinary dislocation between current prices and the finances of the vast majority of Londoners.
Football fans like me were subject to another burst of transfer fever over the weekend. But there is an economic effect and if we look at the initial payment of around £106 million then there are clear effects. Firstly a boost to UK exports and thereby to economic output or GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) accompanied by a boost to the exchange rate against the Euro. Over time there will be a smaller flow in those directions as the amount heads up to a maximum £142 million. In addition to this there is presumably also a boost to GDP by the purchase of Virgil Van Dijk for around £70 million by Liverpool as they spent some of the expected proceeds.
Such numbers are always estimates in the football world but I am intrigued how the national accounts will account ( sorry) for this, as for example do they deduct the price paid by Liverpool for Coutinho? I cannot move on without pointing out that there are clear signs of inflation here as whilst Countinho has improved as a player at Liverpool not by anything like the price change.
Also whilst I am on sporting matters congratulations to Australia on their Ashes victory.