After a disappointing drop (and miss) in January, Chicago PMI tumbled further (from 65.7 to 61.9) as US macro data continues to serially disappointed in recent weeks.

Against expectations of a small drop to 64.1, Chicago PMI in February dropped to 61.9 - below even the lowest of economist estimates (forecast range 62 - 68.1 from 30 economists surveyed).

None of the subcomponents rose in February.

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

This is the lowest print since August 2017.

As the chart above shows, US economic data has been disappointing so far in 2018 and this Chicago print merely piles on the narrative that the short-term exuberance of an apparently global synchronous recovery are fading fast...

As China's credit impulse lags aways...