After 328 trading days since election day, the Trump S&P500 sits right on top of the JFK S&P500. That is the performance of the index, 328 trading days after the election day of each president, is less than five basis points within one another.
Rather stunning, don’t you think?
Similar Volatility Shock
1) 1955: Ike’s heart attack; 2) 1962: the “Kennedy slide” or JFK bear market; and 3) 1987: the “crash” bear market, which lasted only 38 days.
We threw out Ike’s heart attack as it was not a prelude to a bear market. The S&P500 recovered shortly after the sharp Monday sell-off after President Eisenhower had a heart attack on the 8th hole at Cherry Hills Country Club the prior Saturday afternoon.
Though the current S&P500 has the same theme, set-up, and backdrop as the JFK post-election rally and bear market in 1961-62, the fundamentals drivers of the current correction are very similar to those of the 1987 rout (see here).
True Analog Tracker?
If the analog continues to track, the S&P500 should rally around 1.27 percent in the next ten trading days from today’s close before rolling over hard, suffering a decline of 26.37 percent in the next 73 trading days, bottoming in late June. The index would then bounce 14.26 percent from the June low the next 41 days before rolling over again to retest the low in late October. Interesting how October is the month of the market bottoms.
Of course, they will not track perfectly, but they are thus far rhyming each other on fairly consistent basis.
Nevertheless, 328 days after election day, with both markets experiencing similar volatility shocks – the JFK shock coming a little later than the Trump S&P500 shock – the fact both S&Ps are performing within five basis points of each other is simply amazing.
It’s Right here, Right Now for the analog in the next ten trading days.
It is starting to get interesting. The interns now in charge may be about to experience their baptism by fire.