From housing economist Tom Lawler: More on Deaths ...
In discussing available data on deaths earlier this week, I noted that data are deaths are only available with a considerable lag. While that is the case for detailed data on deaths, the National Center for Health Statistics does release provisional estimates for selected indicators of mortality – including both crude and age-adjusted death rates – that are relatively timely. E.g., aggregate crude and age-adjusted death rates are available through the third quarter of 2017, and these data suggested that both crude and age-adjusted death rates increased from 2016 to 2017. For those who track death assumptions in the Census population estimates (which reflect deaths over the 12 month period ending in June), the NCHS provisional death rate estimates imply that US deaths totaled about 2.785 million over the 12-months ended in June 2017, about 41,000 higher than the “Vintage 2017” assumption, and 104,000 above the projection from Census’s 2014 long-term population projection.
If the higher-than-projected death rates remained constant over the next three years (i.e., though 2020), then US deaths over the four-year period ending in 2020 would be over 600,000 higher than the number of deaths assumed in the Census 2014 population projection, with the most of this increase in deaths coming in the 15-44 year old age groups.
|US Deaths Per 100,000, 12-month period ending|
at end of quarter