by New Deal democrat

Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator”

One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that it forecast a recession within the next year. Needless to say, his call was on the mark!

The indicator consists of a monetary and a yield curve component. Kasriel issued another forecast based on the model two months ago. I took a detailed look  over at Seeking Alpha.

As always, clicking over and reading should be worthwhile for you, and also for me by way of rewarding me for my efforts.