Today brings us to what is called Super Thursday as not only does the Bank of England announce its policy decision but we get the latest Inflation Report. Actually the Bank of England has already voted in a change decided upon by Mark Carney so that the official Minutes can be released with the decision. The problem with that comes from the issue that there is plenty of time for any decision to leak. That is on my mind this morning because markets have seen moves and activity.

Sterling extended its gains on Thursday……….

The pound jumped 0.9 percent to as high as $1.2881  sending the currency to a five-day high.

Against the euro, it rose to 88.155 pence per euro  before settling up half a percent at 88.21 pence. The gains follow a rise for sterling on Wednesday.

Now let me switch to interest-rate markets.

Short Sterling being hit in monster clips this morning 20k plus sells. ( @stewhampton)

For those unaware Short Sterling is the future contract for UK interest-rates and is somewhere where I worked back in the day in its options market. The confusing name comes I guess because they were trying to describe short-term interest-rates for sterling and it all got shortened. Anyway @stewhampton has continued.

Continuation of yesterday’s price action, all sells. Smacks of a surprise BOE vote on the hawkish side to me.

Looking at the actual movements we see that the contract for September 2019 was some 0.05 lower at the worst. For comparison an actual Bank of England move is usually 0.25%.

The Shadow MPC

The Times newspaper runs a Shadow Monetary Policy Committee so let us take a look at what it decided.

Sir John Gieve, Charles Goodhart and Andrew Sentance, all former Bank ratesetters, called on the monetary policy committee to increase rates after the £103 billion of fiscal loosening over six years unveiled in Monday’s budget.

Sir Steve Robson, a former Treasury mandarin, Geoff Dicks, a former member of the Office for Budget Responsibility, and Bronwyn Curtis, a non-executive member of the OBR, agreed. All six also cited the tight labour market, with unemployment at a 43-year low of 4 per cent, and rising wages.

On a personal note it is nice to see that Charles Goodhart is still active as he wrote a fair few of the books I read on UK monetary policy as an undergraduate. Also not many people call for a rise in interest-rates at their own semi-retirement party as Andrew Sentance did on Tuesday!

Before I move on I would also like to note that some seem to be catching up with a suggestion I first made in City-AM a bit over five years ago.

Of those who voted to hold rates, Rupert Pennant-Rea, a former deputy governor at the Bank, said that the MPC should start unwinding the £435 billion quantitative easing programme — signalling a bias on The Times panel for tighter policy.Ms Curtis and Sir Steve also called for QE to be wound down.

Decision Day

These are always rather fraught when there is the remote possibility that something may happen. Back in the day that usually meant an interest-rate change and moves were regularly larger which we returned to for a while with the cuts post credit crunch. These days it can also reflect a change in the rhetoric of the Bank of England as well as its Forward Guidance. That is of course if anyone takes much notice of the Forward Guidance which has been wrong more often than it has been right.

But you can have some humour as this from @RANSquawk shows.

Lloyds on – Prices have reversed from the 1.2660 range lows, back through 1.2850 resistance – This, along with momentum back in bull mode, supports our view for a move back towards the top of the 1.2660-1.3320 range

Yes now it has gone up the only way is up and you can guess which song has been linked to on social media.

Doubts

If we now look at the other side of the coin there have been other factors at play over the past 24 hours. First there was the announcement by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab of progress followed this morning by this.

The UK has struck a deal with the EU on post-Brexit financial services, according to unconfirmed reports.

The Times newspaper said London had agreed in talks with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc. ( BBC)

On this road we see reasons to be cheerful for the UK Pound £ and also a possible explanation for the lower short sterling. After all a Brexit deal and a likely stronger Pound £ might mean the Bank of England might raise interest-rates again at some future date. Of course we are building up something of a Fleetwood Mac style chain here as we are relying on the words of journalists about the acts of politicians influencing an unreliable boyfriend. Oh well.

House Prices

Having gone to so much effort to raise house prices for which during the tenure of Governor Carney the only way has indeed been up this will worry the Bank of England.

October saw a slowdown in annual house price growth to
1.6% from 2.0% in September. As a result, annual house
price growth moved below the narrow range of c2-3%
prevailing over the previous 12 months. Prices flat month-on-month after accounting for seasonal effects. ( Nationwide)

Reuters have implictly confirmed my point about Mark Carney’s tenure.

That was the weakest increase since May 2013, before Britain’s housing market started to throw off the after-effects of the global financial crisis.

Manufacturing

There was also a downbeat survey from Markit released at 9:30 am.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing
Managers’ Index® (PMI®) fell to a 27-month low of 51.1,
down from September’s revised reading of 53.6 (originally
published as 53.8).

Of course that 27-month low was when they got things really rather wrong after the EU Leave vote and perhaps most significantly helped trigger a Bank of England rate cut. As to factors here I think it is being driven by the automotive sector and the worries about trade generally. In some ways this measure has in fact been a sort of optimism/pessimism reading on views about Brexit.

One slightly odd feature of the report was this as we recall that a number above 50 is supposed to be an expansion and  after all they do measure down to 0.1.

At current levels, the survey indicates that factory output could contract in the fourth quarter, dropping by 0.2%

 

Comment

As you can see there is much for the Bank of England to consider this morning as they advance from a full English ( Scottish & Welsh versions are available) breakfast to morning coffee and biscuits. After all having voted last night there is not much to do until the press conference at 12:30 and less than half of them have to attend that. But as to a rate rise today I think it is time for some Oasis.

Definitely Maybe

Whilst some might say it is on the cards I think that if we add in the weak monetary data we have been watching in 2018 it would be an odd decision. After all it is promising to raise interest-rates like this.

As little by little we gave you everything you ever dreamed of
Little by little the wheels of your life have slowly fallen off
Little by little you have to give it all in all your life
And all the time I just ask myself why you’re really here?

But of course they have made odd decisions before………

Me on Core Finance TV