Jesse's Café Américain (pseudonym) is a popular financial and economics blog where host Jesse writes about the economy, market movements and the political shenanigans behind them. His charts on precious metals are an excellent resource for technical traders.
“OMB Director Mulvaney cites a record high in gov’t revenue. True, revenues hit a high in nominal terms over FY18, growing 0.4% Y/Y, However after adjusting for inflation, growth actually fell by 1.6%”.
The Devil, in Greek diabolos the 'divider', 'scatterer', 'slanderer'
"Non Farm Payrolls puffed up all year, major negative adjustment to come later. For most Americans this is not a strong economy, regardless of what Fed or Administration says. When the jobs data is benchmarked to the tax data in February, there will be a massive downward revision.
I just ran the October withholding, and there is no way that this number is correct. Withholding was extremely weak. Bureau of Labor Statistics overstating gains all year."
Lee Adler, Capital Stool
"Thanks [Lee] for the insight on the inconsistency of NFP with payroll withholding. I was about to have a quick look at tax receipts but you saved me from that task. As for avg wages rising I expect much wage gains concentration in top 10% (supervisory), similarly for per capita incomes... [for a truer picture look at median numbers especially in times of record income disparity]
BLS says 250,000 jobs created. Zero attention to how number compiled. BLS number helped each month by "birth-death" ESTIMATE to account for unknown business shutdowns and startups. Guess what? The Birth-death estimate this time was +246,000. Good NFP before midterms."