Amid sliding national PMIs, plunging home and auto sales data, collapsing oil prices, and disappointing headlines everywhere, the purchasing manager of Chicago are ebullient...

Just as the 'soft' survey data was starting to catch down to the reality of hard economic data, Chicago PMI explodes from 58.4 to 66.4 in October...

 

This is well above the forecast range (50.3 - 60) from 28 economists surveyed:

The number of components rising vs last month was five.

  • Business barometer rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

We await November's crash back to reality.