Over under sideways down. The Fed’s “guidance” is drawing some frowns.
The recent confusing messaging by Jerome Powell about the neutral rate and future increases is causing confusion among trades and portfolio managers.
Throw in Brexit, the new Leftist President of Mexico and French riots. and The Fed is over under sideways down.
Take the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve slope. It has flattened to 16.7 basis points.
The 5Y-3Y segment has inverted (upside down).
In fact, it is the first time the 5Y-3Y spread has been inverted (below zero) since 2007.
You can see inversion in both the US Treasury curve AND the US Dollar Swaps curve.
The LIBOR/OIS spread is widening … again.