With initial jobless claims breaking their positive trend, ADP (and tomorrow's BLS data) are left to confirm the "strong economy" narrative with their linearly extrapolated jobs growth trends.

After beating expectations in 4 of the last 5 months, November saw ADP employment additions disappoint notably (+179k vs +195k exp)...

With large employers (1000+) shedding jobs for the first time since April 2017...

“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ability to provide stronger wages and benefits. It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face.”   

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but has likely peaked. This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation. With very tight labor markets, and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.”   

Under the covers, the most notable item is the drop in large employer employment...

The noise between ADP and Payrolls continues with last month seeing a small miss by ADP relative to the BLS data...

 

Finally we note that the extremely linear trend of the ADP total seems to be in question from the accelerating uptick in initial jobless claims...

Which do you trust? The higher frequency claims data or the seemingly linear long-term magical trend of the ADP data?