The first trading day of 2019 comes in with a … bang.
First, the US Treasury Repo index exploded.
And the US Treasury curve has developed a serious kink between the one year tenor and 3 year tenor. Better known as curve inversion.
The UST 10Y-2Y curve has resume declining and is in line with the U-3 unemployment rate. Note that unemployment starts to rise BEFORE the beginning of every recession. And the US economy is not seeing rising unemployment … yet.
Is Fed Chair Jerome Powell the Repo Man?