The first trading day of 2019 comes in with a … bang.

First, the US Treasury Repo index exploded.


And the US Treasury curve has developed a serious kink between the one year tenor and 3 year tenor. Better known as curve inversion.


The UST 10Y-2Y curve has resume declining and is in line with the U-3 unemployment rate.  Note that unemployment starts to rise BEFORE the beginning of every recession. And the US economy is not seeing rising unemployment … yet.


Is Fed Chair Jerome Powell the Repo Man?