In our quest to continually improve the contest, we have a larger number of questions this year than last year and the year before. Please do not let that discourage you. The larger sample size should increase the likelihood that the winner is the best calibrated predictor.

All probabilities are due by this Sunday, January the 6th at 8 p.m. Pacific time. Post your probabilities in the comments section below. Either leave an email address or post using an account so that we can verify the winner's identity next year. (You could also leave a link to a Google Doc, etc.)

Finally, remember the logarithmic scoring system. As Wikipedia explains, "a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = -0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = -1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be as large as possible, and -0.22 is indeed larger than -1.6."

Here are the questions, arranged by category: