The latest BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that institutional managers have been piling into emerging market equities while avoiding the other major developed market regions.
Indeed, there is good reasoning behind the bullish stampede. Callum Thomas showed a series of charts supportive of the EM equity bull case. For one, developed market M-PMIs have been falling while EM PMIs have been mostly steady.
On a relative basis, EM/DM equity performance are showing signs of a long-term double bottom consistent with the double bottom pattern of the last cycle.
The cyclical to defensive stock ratio in EM appear to be bottoming. This ratio led the downturn, could it be signaling a risk-on revival?
A Special Announcement We told you so. We told you the market was going down.
Here is the track of Humble Student of the Markets, where we are neither perma-bulls nor perma-bears. Most recently, we have been correctly bullish since the correction of 2015, and turned cautious in August 2018 (see Market top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious, August 5, 2018).
We were also timely at the 2009 bottom. We issued a call to buy beaten up low-priced stocks with high insider buying a week before the ultimate bottom (see Phoenix rising? February 24, 2009).
The out-of-sample record of our model trading portfolio in 2018 was up 42.9%. For more details, see our weekly updates here.
The recent market volatility has brought a flood of new subscribers, and we are announcing a price increase, and a number of other changes in order to better control the growth of our community. However, all subscribers will be grandfathered at their old prices.
The following changes will occur as of March 1, 2019:
The annual subscription price will rise from US$249.99 to US$356 per year.
The monthly subscription price will rise from US$24.99 to US$35.60 per month.
The 24-hour subscription will no longer be offered.
The embargo period for free content will change from two weeks to four weeks.
Remember, if you subscribe now, you will be grandfathered at the old price - permanently.